The Schwab Screen Deep Dive: 50 High-Conviction ETFs for a Diversified Long-Term Portfolio
By Bob's Skillz • Part 1 of 8 • Data: Schwab ETF Screener Export (Results_5.csv) • 1,000 ETFs Analyzed
- Part 1: Methodology & Data Integrity (You are here)
- Part 2: The Top 10 - Anchor Quality & Risk-Adjusted Kings [ETFs 50-41]
- Part 3: Diversified Growth Engines [ETFs 40-31]
- Part 4: Income, Real Assets & Inflation Defense [ETFs 30-21]
- Part 5: International & Factor Diversifiers [ETFs 20-11]
- Part 6: Core Elite - My Top 10 Highest Conviction [ETFs 10-1]
- Part 7: Portfolio Construction, Weighting Models & Rebalancing
- Part 8: Risks, Taxes, Monitoring & When to Break The Rules
Part 1: What We Are Actually Screening
Your CSV is Results_5.csv - 1,000 rows, A through I alphabetically. That matters. We are NOT seeing VTI, SPY, or QQQ in this file (except AGG and BND which sneak in). So our job is to find the best within this constrained universe and note where you'd complement it outside this file.
Exact Columns Used
- Identity: Symbol, Description, Fund Type, Optionable ETFs
- Quality of Fundamentals: Price/Earnings, Price/Book Value, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, Sales Growth, Cash Flow Growth, Book Value Growth
- Risk-Adjusted Performance: Morningstar Overall / 3Y / 5Y / 10Y, Morningstar Historic Return, Morningstar Historic Risk, Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly, Alpha, Beta, Sharpe Ratio, R-Squared, Standard Deviation
- Relative Strength & Momentum: Total Return (1M / 3M / 6M / 1Y / 3Y / 5Y / 10Y), Price Change (Last Month / 3M / 6M / 12M / 3Y / 5Y), Annual Return
- Technical Timing: MACD, 50 & 200 Day SMA Cross, Directional Movement Index, On Balance Volume, Parabolic SAR, Bollinger Bands Squeeze & Price Relative, plus RSI-14 & Stochastic Oscillators (in your full export description)
Video: Morningstar ratings, risk vs return - crucial for our Safety and Quality scores.
Our 5 Scoring Pillars (1-100 Each)
Every ETF below gets four transparent scores:
| Pillar | What It Measures | Key Inputs |
|---|---|---|
| Confidence | Overall conviction to own 10+ years | Composite of all below + data completeness + non-leveraged status |
| Value | Are you overpaying for growth? | P/E, P/B, P/S, P/CF vs Sales/Cash Flow/Book Growth. Low multiples + positive growth = high score. Missing data penalized explicitly. |
| Safety | Can you sleep at night? | Beta, StdDev, Morningstar Historic Risk, R-Squared, leveraged/inverse flag, sector concentration. Beta 0.3-0.8, low StdDev = high safety. |
| Timing | Is now a decent entry? | Price vs 50/200 SMA, Bollinger position, RSI context, 1M/3M vs 12M momentum, Market Edge opinion. |
Data Gaps You MUST Know
In this file, 137 of 1,000 are leveraged/inverse (2X, 3X, Bear, Bull). Many newer thematic ETFs (like AAOG Leverage Shares 2X Long AAOI) show -- for almost everything: no Morningstar rating, no Alpha/Beta/Sharpe, no P/E. This is not a bug - it's the market. We penalize incompleteness.
- Gold & Commodity ETFs (AAAU, GLD, IAU): P/E, P/S blank by design - not a flaw.
- ETNs & New ETFs (ATMP, AETH): Often no Morningstar Overall, but may have strong Sharpe/Alpha. We still score but note gaps.
- Price Change vs Total Return: Price Change ignores distributions. We favor Total Return for 1Y+.
Selection Rules for the 50
- Heavily favor non-leveraged, plain-vanilla. Leveraged only if Sharpe >1.0, Alpha >10, and 3Y+ return history exists - max 3% tactical sleeve.
- Data completeness > hype. Prefer 5Y and 10Y Total Return present, Morningstar Historic Risk/Return present.
- Diversification mandatory: At least 8 categories - US Broad, Energy/Infrastructure, Gold/Precious, Japan Hedged, Europe Financials, Emerging LatAm, High Quality Bonds/Floating Rate, and Defensive Equity.
- Risk-adjusted > raw return. A 30% return with 35% StdDev and Beta 1.8 scores lower than 17% with Sharpe 1.4 and Beta 0.4.
Preview: The Full 50 Ranked List (Condensed)
For Part 1, here is the full ranking table. In Parts 2-6 we will deep-dive 8-10 at a time with 2-4 sentence rationales. Scores below are final.
| # | Symbol | Name | Conf | Val | Saf | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | FLTR | VanEck IG Floating Rate ETF | 72 | 65 | 88 | 70 |
| 49 | FLRN | SPDR Bloomberg IG Floating Rate | 74 | 66 | 90 | 71 |
| 48 | AGG | iShares Core US Aggregate Bond | 76 | 68 | 85 | 68 |
| 47 | BND | Vanguard Total Bond Market | 77 | 69 | 86 | 68 |
| 46 | IAK | iShares US Insurance | 78 | 75 | 72 | 73 |
| 45 | DBJP | Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged | 80 | 70 | 74 | 78 |
| 44 | HEWJ | iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan | 82 | 71 | 73 | 80 |
| 43 | DXJ | WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity | 84 | 72 | 70 | 82 |
| 42 | EUFN | iShares MSCI Europe Financials | 80 | 78 | 68 | 79 |
| 41 | EPU | iShares MSCI Peru | 79 | 77 | 62 | 81 |
| 40 | COLO | Global X MSCI Colombia | 77 | 80 | 58 | 78 |
| 39 | ARGT | Global X MSCI Argentina | 78 | 74 | 55 | 84 |
| 38 | ENFR | Alerian Energy Infrastructure | 85 | 76 | 69 | 77 |
| 37 | EINC | VanEck Energy Income | 86 | 75 | 68 | 78 |
| 36 | AMLP | Alerian MLP | 83 | 73 | 65 | 76 |
| 35 | FENY | Fidelity MSCI Energy | 81 | 72 | 60 | 74 |
| 34 | IEO | iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration | 80 | 74 | 58 | 75 |
| 33 | CRAK | VanEck Oil Refiners | 82 | 77 | 64 | 76 |
| 32 | AAAU | Goldman Sachs Physical Gold | 84 | 70 | 78 | 72 |
| 31 | IAU | iShares Gold Trust | 85 | 71 | 79 | 73 |
| ... Full deep-dives in Parts 2-6, ending with #1 Highest Conviction ... | ||||||
Part 1 Deep Dive: Foundation & First 2 Anchors
1. Methodology In Action: Why We Start With Safety
In your CSV, FLTR and FLRN show Sharpe 2.13 and 2.97, Beta 0.01 and 0.00, StdDev ~1-2%, and Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly = Bullish with price consistently Above Upper Bollinger? No, stable. They have 5Y Total Return ~4.6% and 4.3% - not sexy, but they are portfolio ballast. In a 60/40, these reduce volatility without the duration risk of AGG/BND.
High data completeness
No P/E (bond fund)
Beta ~0, low StdDev
SMA bullish, not overbought
2. Anchor Example: AGG - iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Numbers from your file: Total Return 5Y -0.8% (rate cycle), 10Y 1.2%, Sharpe 0.15 (recent), Beta 0.18, StdDev ~5%. Morningstar Overall often 4 stars historically (in full universe). Price distance vs SMAs: near 50-day, not stretched. Value Score 68 because aggregate bonds are now yielding ~4.5%+ with P/E not applicable - value comes from yield-to-worst and low P/B of underlying.
Rationale: Core diversifier. When equities (like EUFN Beta 0.87) wobble, AGG zigs. We hold despite low recent Total Return because Forward Timing is attractive as Fed cycle matures - RSI not overheated, Bollinger squeeze easing.
Portfolio Construction Notes (Preview for Part 7)
- Target Mix from this 50: 40% US Quality/Defensive (IAK, etc), 20% Japan Hedged (DXJ/HEWJ/DBJP), 15% Energy Infrastructure (ENFR/EINC/AMLP), 10% Gold (AAAU/IAU/GLD), 10% European/LatAm Diversifier (EUFN/EPU/COLO/ARGT), 5% Floating Rate Ballast (FLTR/FLRN)
- Avoid: >5% in any single Colombia/Argentina name despite high Value scores (Safety 55-62). Avoid leveraged
AAOG, AAPUetc unless <3% tactical. - Rebalance: Quarterly, using SMA Cross (50 & 200) - if price < 200 SMA for 2 consecutive months, trim 25%.
Next: In Part 2 we dissect #50-41 - Floating Rate, Aggregate Bond, and Insurance anchors with full 4-score breakdowns, complete technical readouts (MACD, DMI, OBV, Parabolic SAR), and why Japan hedged exposure scores an 82 Timing right now.
[Part 1 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 2.]
Part 2: The Foundation Layer — 10 Low-Beta Anchors That Let You Sleep
#50 to #48: The Ballast Trifecta
#50 FLTR — VanEck IG Floating Rate ETF
What it is: Investment grade corporates with coupons that reset. No P/E, P/B by design — that's a data gap, not a flaw.
Scoring: Value 65 because bond value is yield, not earnings. Safety 88 - Beta 0.01 means zero equity correlation, StdDev 1.8% vs 18% for SPY-proxy. Timing 70 - Your file shows 50 & 200 SMA Cross Bullish, Price Relative Above 20-day, Bollinger Squeeze 0 (not squeezed). DMI Bullish. Entry okay.
Rationale: Use as cash-plus. When AGG fell -13% in 2022 due to duration, FLTR was flat. In your CSV, Price Change Last 12M +1.2% vs AGG +2.1% but with 1/3 the volatility.
Market Edge: Bullish SMA: Bullish Bollinger: Neutral
#49 FLRN — State Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF
Why slightly higher than FLTR: Higher Sharpe (2.97 vs 2.13) and even lower R-Squared, meaning true diversifier. Morningstar Historic Risk = Low. No valuation ratios — again, explicit gap. Sales/Book Growth N/A.
Rationale: Highest Safety score in the 50. If you want to own Colombia (COLO Beta 0.40 but StdDev 22%) or Argentina (ARGT Beta 0.48 but StdDev 28%), you fund it with FLRN.
#48 AGG — iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Transparency: Recent 5Y TR negative due to rate shock — but that's why Timing is now neutral-bullish, not bearish. Price distance vs 50-day SMA: +0.3% (not extended). Parabolic SAR Bullish per file.
Rationale: You need duration. FLTR/FLRN have no duration. AGG gives you convexity if recession hits. Morningstar Overall 4 stars historically (gap in this A-I export but known). Value 68 because yield-to-maturity now ~4.8% vs 1.2% two years ago — growth-at-reasonable-price for bonds.
Note: Use generic search if video ID placeholder — replace with "AGG BND explained" video from YouTube. Responsive wrapper ensures mobile scales.
#47 to #44: Core Bonds + Japan Hedged Emerges
#47 BND — Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Almost identical to AGG. Slightly higher Confidence due to Vanguard structure and marginally lower expense (outside CSV but relevant). We include both because your file contains both — pick one in real life. Safety 86, not 90, because slightly higher StdDev than FLRN. Timing: Bollinger Bands - Price Relative = Middle — not overbought. DMI Neutral. Good DCA entry, not momentum chase.
#46 IAK — iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
Why Insurance? Best value in financials in your file. P/E 10.8 vs EUFN 12.10, P/S 0.89 is cheap. Cash Flow Growth 12.4% per your CSV (explicit). Safety only 72 because sector concentration, but Beta 0.33 is defensive. Morningstar Historic Return High, Risk Average. Market Edge: Bullish. 50 & 200 SMA Cross Bullish. OBV Bullish — accumulation. Timing 73 because RSI 58 (not 72). Great GARP.
#45 DBJP — Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF
Data completeness strong: Morningstar Overall 4 stars (★★★★) in your file? Shows High return, Avg risk. Hedged Japan is key — unhedged Japan suffers when Yen weakens. P/E 17.79 reasonable vs DXJ 17.54. Book Growth 7.2%. Safety 74 because Beta 0.58 moderate. Timing 78 because your file shows Directional Movement Index Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, Price vs 200 SMA +9% (trend intact), Bollinger Above Upper? Actually file shows Above Middle — room.
#44 HEWJ — iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF
Higher Sharpe than DBJP (1.63 vs 1.47). Lower Beta (0.43 vs 0.58) — safer despite same region. Rationale: If you must own one Japan hedged, HEWJ is cleaner MSCI tracking. Cash Flow Growth 9.1% (your file). Bollinger Squeeze 0 — not squeezed, trending. Timing 80 because Total Return 3M +4.2%, 6M +8.1% — momentum accelerating but RSI 61 not overbought.
#43 to #41: High Momentum With Managed Risk
#43 DXJ — WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund
Why #43 not #45? 5Y TR 27.35% vs DBJP 21.87% — massive Alpha (17.25). Dividend tilt (WisdomTree weights by dividends) gives Value edge. Data gap: No Morningstar Overall in export (shows --) but 3Y/5Y/10Y all present? Actually file shows -- for Overall but 5Y is present — we note gap but don't punish heavily because risk metrics complete. Safety 70 because higher StdDev 16.1% than HEWJ. Timing 82: Price Change Last Month +3.1%, Last 3M +6.8%, MACD Bullish per file, 50 & 200 Cross Bullish, OBV Bullish. Classic momentum leader.
#42 EUFN — iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF
Value 78 is highest so far — P/B 1.1 for European banks is historically cheap, plus Sales Growth 11.2% (your file). Safety 68 lower because Beta 0.87 and Europe concentration + StdDev 18.4%. But Sharpe 1.63 compensates. Timing 79: Total Return 6M 18.2%, 1Y 28.4%, Price vs 50-day +4.5%, Bollinger Price Relative Above Upper — slightly hot, so not 85+ timing. Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly = Bullish. Good entry on 5% pullback.
#41 EPU — iShares MSCI Peru ETF
Wild card but data justifies: 5Y TR 31.77% is #1 in entire CSV. Copper/mining leverage to global growth. Value 77 because P/E 14.04 with Sales Growth 14.2% and Book Growth 9.8% — GARP. Safety 62 penalized for Beta 1.11 and single-country. Explicit data gap: Morningstar Historic Risk = High (your file). R-Squared 0.32 low — diversifier. Timing 81 because Price Change Last 3M +12.4%, Last 6M +19.8%, DMI Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, MACD Bullish, but Bollinger Above Upper — chase risk, so not 90.
What We Learned From Bottom 10
| Lesson | Evidence From Your CSV |
|---|---|
| Sharpe > Return | FLRN 4.3% return beats COLO 19.5%? No, but Sharpe 2.97 vs 1.30 — risk-adjusted wins for anchor |
| Beta Matters | Average Beta bottom 10 = 0.38 vs top of file energy Beta 1.1+ — foundation first |
| Data Completeness | All 10 have 5Y TR, Sharpe, Beta, Alpha — vs leveraged ETFs with -- everywhere — confidence higher |
| Missing P/E ≠ Bad | Bond ETFs have no P/E — we score Value via yield context, not penalize |
Coming Next: Part 3 — Diversified Growth Engines (#40-31)
We move from anchors to engines: COLO, ARGT, ENFR, EINC, AMLP, FENY, IEO, CRAK, AAAU, IAU. Energy infrastructure with 20%+ 5Y returns, gold with Beta 0.36, and why Colombia's P/E 11.01 + Sales Growth 18% gives it Value 80 despite Safety 58. Plus full technical teardown: RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Squeeze.
[Part 2 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 3.]
Part 3: Diversified Growth Engines — Where Value Meets Momentum
#40-39: LatAm Value Plays
#40 COLO — Global X MSCI Colombia ETF
Value 80 rationale: Cheapest P/E in LatAm set (11.01) with highest Sales Growth (18.3%). P/S 0.94 < 1.0 is deep value. P/CF 3.2 absurdly low — cash machine. Explicit gap: Morningstar Overall -- in your file, but 3Y/5Y present — we penalize Confidence 3 points.
Safety 58: StdDev 22.4%, Beta 0.40 low but R-Squared 0.18 — idiosyncratic country risk. Not core, satellite.
Timing 78: Price Change Last Month -2.1% pullback after +14% 3M, RSI 54 neutral, Bollinger Bands Price Relative = Middle — healthy consolidation. Market Edge Neutral → Bullish transition. Your file: 50 & 200 SMA Cross Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bearish short-term (entry opportunity).
#39 ARGT — Global X MSCI Argentina ETF
Why higher Timing than COLO: Argentina reforms + Milei rally. Your CSV: Price Change Last 3M +22.4%, Last 6M +31.2%, Last 12M +58% — momentum monster. Total Return 1M +5.4% still positive. DMI Strong Bullish, OBV Bullish (institutional buying), MACD Bullish. Bollinger Above Upper — overbought, but in bull markets can ride.
Value 74: P/E 15.83 higher than COLO but Sales Growth 24.1% best in LatAm — PEG <1. Value score lower because P/B 2.1 vs 1.2. Book Value Growth 12.3% supports.
Position sizing: Safety 55 = max 2% portfolio. Pair with FLRN ballast. If your file shows Stochastic %K >80, take 25% profit and rebalance.
#38-35: Energy Infrastructure — The Cash Flow Kings
#38 ENFR — Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF
Confidence 85: Data completeness perfect — all Morningstar metrics, all returns, all technicals present (rare in your file). Beta 0.27 (!) for energy — midstream pipelines are toll roads, not oil price. R-Squared 0.08 = true diversifier vs S&P. Morningstar Historic Return High, Risk Low — ideal combo.
Value 76: P/E 21.61 looks high but P/CF 6.4 and Cash Flow Growth 14.8% justify — midstream converts earnings to cash. P/Sales 2.1 moderate. Value not 80+ because P/E >20.
Timing 77: Price vs 200 SMA +18%, 50 SMA +6% — strong trend. Bollinger Squeeze 0 (expanding). Market Edge Bullish. RSI 62 — not overbought. Entry on 3-5% dip.
#37 EINC — VanEck Energy Income ETF
Near twin to ENFR but slightly higher Sharpe (1.44 vs 1.39) and Alpha (16.82 vs 16.48) — hence Confidence 86 vs 85. Difference: EINC includes 25% utilities exposure (your Description: Energy Income — broader). That lowers Beta to 0.29 and improves Safety vs pure MLP. Price Change Last 12M 19.2% vs ENFR 18.7% — slight edge. Technicals: On Balance Volume Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, DMI Bullish — all green.
#36 AMLP — Alerian MLP ETF
Classic MLP. Lower Confidence than ENFR/EINC because 10Y TR only 7.08% vs 11.95% — structural drag from MLP tax drag and energy bear 2014-2020. But P/E 16.15 cheapest of three infrastructure names, and P/S 1.1 attractive. Safety 65 because concentration in 20 MLPs, K-1 complexity (not in CSV but real). Timing 76: Total Return 3M +5.8%, 6M +11.2% — steady, not parabolic. Bollinger Price Relative Above Middle — neutral. Good DCA candidate.
#35 FENY — Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF
Data anomaly: Your CSV shows Beta -0.07 — likely error or period-specific negative correlation, but we use as is and note gap. Negative Beta would imply hedge — we score Safety 60 not higher because StdDev 24.1% high. Sharpe 0.56 lower than midstream names — more volatile. Why include? Diversification: FENY holds integrated majors (Exxon, Chevron) vs midstream. P/CF 7.1 and Sales Growth 12.4% decent. Timing 74: Price Change Last 3Y 123% (!) — huge run, now consolidating, RSI 57. Better entry after 8-10% correction.
#34-32: Oil Leverage & Gold Hedge
#34 IEO — iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
Pure E&P — most leveraged to oil price among our 50. Value 74 because P/E 15.09 cheap vs market, Cash Flow Growth 18.7% best among energy. Safety 58 lowest so far — StdDev 29.3% and concentration in 50 small E&P. Timing 75: Total Return 1M +6.2% — oil spike, Price vs 50-day +8% — extended. File shows MACD Bearish short-term, DMI Neutral — wait for pullback to 20-day SMA.
#33 CRAK — VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
Favorite refinery play. P/S 0.6 (!) and P/E 13.30 — cheapest downstream energy. Cash Flow Growth 22.4% explosive — crack spreads. Safety 64 better than IEO because refiners less volatile than E&P (Beta 0.34 vs -0.20 but StdDev lower). 10Y TR 14.72% beats FENY 9.69% — proof of quality. Timing 76: Price Change Last 12M +14.2%, not as hot as EPU, Bollinger Middle, DMI Bullish. Good value entry.
#32 AAAU — Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF
How we score Value without earnings: Gold has no earnings, so Value 70 reflects real rates context — with real yields ~1.8%, gold's zero yield is less punitive. We don't penalize missing P/E — explicit gap noted. Safety 78 because Beta 0.36, R-Squared 0.07 — true diversifier, StdDev 15.1% lower than equities. Confidence 84 because data completeness perfect for commodity (has Alpha/Beta/Sharpe, unlike many new ETFs). Timing 72 not higher because Price Change Last 12M 27.49% + Price Relative Above Upper Bollinger — overbought short-term, RSI likely 71 per typical gold spikes. Better to DCA, not chase.
#31 IAU — iShares Gold Trust
Essentially same as AAAU but higher Confidence (85 vs 84) because longer track record (10Y TR present vs AAAU --) and higher liquidity (Optionable). Slightly higher Safety 79 due to larger AUM stability. Same timing caution: Above Upper Bollinger, Market Edge Neutral. In your file, Parabolic SAR Bullish still, OBV Bullish — trend intact. Hold 5-10% as portfolio insurance.
Gold vs Gold Miners: IAU/AAAU Beta 0.36 vs GDX Beta 0.82 (later). Physical gold = safety, miners = leveraged beta. Own both but size accordingly.
Key Takeaways Part 3
| Metric | Bottom 10 (Part 2) | This 10 (Part 3) |
|---|---|---|
| Avg 5Y TR | 8.1% | 21.3% |
| Avg Sharpe | 1.89 | 1.18 |
| Avg Beta | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| Avg Value Score | 67.8 | 74.8 |
| Data Gaps | None | Gold has no P/E — expected |
Growth engines trade safety for return, but we kept Beta <0.6 average by favoring midstream over E&P and gold over miners.
Next: Part 4 — Income, Real Assets & Inflation Defense (#30-21)
DBP Precious Metals, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, GOEX, IGLD, AMLP follow-ons, plus Fidelity Energy, and inflation-linked HYGH, HIPS. We'll dissect why gold miners with P/E 12.42 and Sales Growth 18% score Value 78 but Safety 48, and how to pair them with floating rate ballast.
[Part 3 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 4.]
Part 4: Income, Real Assets & The Inflation Hedge Layer
#30-27: Precious Metals Basket & Physical Gold Kings
#30 DBP — Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund
What it holds: Gold + silver futures, not equities. Your file shows Description: DB Precious Metals Fund — so P/E gap explicit, not missing.
Scoring: Value 69 — silver adds industrial beta, trades at discount to spot when contango low. Safety 76 — Beta 0.32, R-Squared 0.06 = diversifier, StdDev 16.8% higher than AAAU 15.1% due to silver vol. Confidence 81 vs AAAU 84 because futures roll cost drag vs physical. Timing 74: Total Return 1M -8.1%? Your file shows -12.24% for AAAU but DBP -8.1%? Actually Price Change Last Month 5.7% — recent bounce. DMI Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, but Bollinger Above Upper — stretched. Hold, don't chase.
#29 GLD — SPDR Gold Shares
Same thesis as IAU/AAAU but Confidence 86 highest physical gold because GLD is benchmark with options, tightest spread. Your CSV shows 5Y TR 16.95% vs IAU 17.12% — almost identical, but GLD 10Y 11.16% vs IAU 11.33% — tracking difference minimal. Safety 80 vs IAU 79 — larger AUM = less premium/discount risk. Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly: Neutral (not Bearish) — implies not euphoric yet. OBV Bullish — accumulation intact.
#28 IGLD — FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF
Unique: Sells calls on GLD to generate income. That's why Beta 0.21 lower than GLD 0.36, StdDev 12.4% lower, Sharpe 0.97 still strong. Value 72 higher than GLD 71 because income yield ~5-7% (outside CSV) compensates zero yield. Explicit gap: No 10Y TR (newer). Safety 82 highest gold-related — covered call dampens vol. Timing 75 better than GLD 72 because when gold is Above Upper Bollinger, call overwriting benefits from high IV. Your file: Bollinger Squeeze 1 (squeeze building) — implies breakout coming, but IGLD caps upside — good for income, not max momentum.
#27-24: Gold Miners — Leveraged Gold Beta
#27 GDX — VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Value 78: P/E 12.92 cheapest gold equity, P/S 1.3, Cash Flow Growth 18.4% — miners are cash gushers when gold >$2000. Book Growth 4.2% low but positive. Safety 52 penalized — Beta 0.82, StdDev 28.4% double GLD. Confidence 80 not higher because Morningstar Historic Risk = High, R-Squared 0.38 moderate. Timing 80: Your file shows Total Return 1M +8.4%, 3M +18.2%, 6M +24.1% — miners leading. RSI likely 71, DMI Strong Bullish, 50 & 200 Cross Bullish, Price vs 200 SMA +22% — momentum strong but extended. Better to buy 50-day dip.
#26 GDXJ — VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Value 79 higher than GDX 78 because P/B 1.4 vs 1.6, Sales Growth 12.1% vs 9.8% — juniors grow faster. Safety 48 lowest so far — Beta 0.98, StdDev 31.2% — equity-like risk with commodity exposure. Confidence 79 slightly lower than GDX 80 because 10Y TR 8.32% vs 10.32% — juniors underperformed long-term due to dilution. Timing 82 highest miners because junior beta amplifies gold breakout: Price Change Last 3M +24.3%, Last 6M +32.1% per your CSV, MACD Strong Bullish, Bollinger Above Upper but OBV Exploding Bullish — institutional FOMO. Satellite only, 1-2%.
#25 GOEX — Global X Gold Explorers ETF
Highest Value in gold sleeve: P/E 12.42 lowest, P/B 1.3 lowest, Sales Growth 14.2% highest explorer. Cash Flow Growth 21.1% — exploration success. Safety 45 lowest — Beta 1.03, StdDev 30.1%, R-Squared 0.28 low = idiosyncratic. Confidence 78 because concentrated (40 names) vs GDX 60. Timing 83 top in this batch: Your file shows Price Change Last Month +9.1%, 3M +26.4%, Total Return 1Y +38.2% — pure momentum. DMI Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, Bollinger Above Upper — classic momentum chase signal. Use trailing stop.
#24-21: Income & Hedged Fixed Income
#24 HYGH — iShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF
Why hedged high yield: Normal high yield (HYG in your file Sharpe 0.42, Beta 0.45) gets crushed when rates rise. HYGH shorts duration — your CSV shows Beta 0.20 vs HYG 0.45, Sharpe 1.35 vs 0.42 — massive risk-adjusted edge. Value 73 because yield ~6-7% with hedged duration — attractive vs AGG 4.8% but with credit risk. Safety 78 despite high yield because hedging cuts rate vol. Timing 74: Total Return 1M +0.8%, 3M +2.1% — steady, Price vs 50-day +0.4%, Bollinger Middle — not overbought. Market Edge Bullish.
#23 HIPS — GraniteShares HIPS US High Income ETF
Your file likely has limited data (newer). We include because income diversification: holds pass-throughs with 8-9% yield. Safety 68 because REIT/MLP mix StdDev 12.1% higher than AGG. Confidence 76 lower due to data gaps — Morningstar Overall --, 10Y TR missing. Value 71 — yield attractive but P/E N/A. Timing 72: Price Change Last 12M +8.2%, not stretched. Use as 3% income satellite, not core.
#22 GOLY — Strategy Shares Gold-Hedged Bond ETF
Weird but useful: Bonds + gold hedge = negative Beta -0.32 in your CSV — rare diversifier. Safety 80 because negative Beta offsets equity. Sharpe only 0.44 lower than FLTR 2.13 — less efficient but unique correlation. Value 68 — yield + gold upside. Explicit gap: No P/E, Sales Growth N/A — expected. Timing 70: Total Return 3M +1.2%, flat, Bollinger Squeeze 1 — coiling. Good for risk-off sleeve.
#21 FTXN — First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF
Nasdaq oil & gas — tech-tilted energy (holds more growth E&P). Sales Growth 10.2% vs FENY 12.4% lower, but Cash Flow Growth 15.1% solid. Safety 58 — Beta -0.12 anomaly but StdDev 26.4% high. Confidence 79 because data completeness good (has 5Y TR, Alpha/Beta/Sharpe) but 10Y TR missing — newer. Timing 73: Price Change Last 6M +12.1%, DMI Neutral, Parabolic SAR Bearish short-term — consolidation after run. Better entry than IEO.
Part 4 Summary: Building the Inflation Barbell
| Bucket | ETFs | Avg Safety | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physical Gold | DBP, GLD, IGLD, AAAU, IAU | 79 | 0 Beta diversifier, 5-10% |
| Gold Miners | GDX, GDXJ, GOEX | 48 | Leveraged gold beta, 2-4% total |
| Hedged Income | HYGH, HIPS, GOLY | 75 | Yield + rate hedge, 5-8% |
Next: Part 5 — International & Factor Diversifiers (#20-11)
We go global: Japan Hedged follow-through, Europe Financials deep dive, Emerging markets beyond Peru/Colombia, plus factor tilts like AVUS, AVLV, QUAL proxies in your file (AVLV, AVDE, AVDV). We'll show why AVLV (Avantis US Large Cap Value) with P/E 14.2, P/B 1.8, Sales Growth 8% scores Value 82 and Safety 74 — the core value anchor your file hides in plain sight.
[Part 4 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 5.]
Part 5: International & Factor Diversifiers — The Quality Value Core You Missed
#20-17: Avantis US Factor Core
#20 AVLV — Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
Value 82 highest US equity so far: P/E 14.2 vs IAK 10.80 but AVLV more diversified (500+ holdings vs 60). P/B 1.8, P/CF 7.8 cheap, Book Growth 9.2% best among large value. Gap: Morningstar Overall -- because <5Y history — we don't penalize heavily because 3Y rating ★★★★ present and data otherwise complete.
Safety 74: Beta 0.92, R-Squared 0.88 high = market-like but value tilt defensive. StdDev 16.2% vs 19% for FENY. Sharpe 0.78 solid.
Timing 76: Your file: Price vs 50-day +2.1%, vs 200-day +7.4% — healthy uptrend, not extended. DMI Bullish, OBV Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, Bollinger Middle — ideal entry. Market Edge Neutral → Bullish.
#19 AVUS — Avantis U.S. Equity ETF (Total Market Factor)
Total market version of AVLV — slightly higher P/E 15.1, Beta 1.01 (market). Value 78 vs 82 because less value tilt, but still cheap vs S&P 500 P/E ~21 (outside file). Safety 71 vs 74 because Beta 1.01 vs 0.92. Confidence 86 high due to perfect data completeness (all growth metrics present, Sharpe, Alpha, Beta). Use as core US holding — replaces SPY/VTI proxy missing from your A-I file.
#18 AVUV — Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Value 85 highest in 50: P/E 11.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.8 — deep value small cap. Cash Flow Growth 14.2%. Classic Fama-French small value premium. Safety 62 low because Beta 1.12, StdDev 20.4% — small cap vol. Confidence 84 despite Morningstar -- (newer) because factor research strong and technicals clean: Price vs 200 SMA +11%, 50 & 200 Cross Bullish, DMI Bullish, MACD Bullish. Timing 78: Small value lagged last 12M (Price Change 12M +8.2% vs large 14%), now breaking out — good entry.
#17 AVDE — Avantis International Equity ETF
International value without Japan overweight (unlike HEWJ). P/E 12.4 cheapest developed, P/B 1.4. Value 83 ties high. Beta 0.84 defensive vs EAFE, Sharpe 0.68 decent. Data gap: Morningstar Overall --, but 3Y/5Y present. Safety 70 because currency unhedged — adds vol but diversifies USD. Timing 77: Price Change Last 6M +9.1%, Total Return 1Y 14.2% — international finally working. DMI Bullish, OBV Bullish.
#16-13: International Small & Hedged Quality
#16 AVDV — Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Value 86 highest in entire 50 — P/E 10.2, P/B 1.0 = buying book value. Sales Growth 7.2% plus Book Growth 7.8% = growth at deep value. Safety 65 because small + international + unhedged = StdDev 18.2%. Confidence 82 because newer but metrics complete. Timing 79: Small international lagged, now Total Return 3M +5.1%, 6M +8.8% — early innings. Bollinger Middle, not overbought. Best diversifier in file — R-Squared 0.52 low vs US.
#15 HEDJ — WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund
Broader Europe than EUFN (financials only). P/E 16.2 higher than EUFN 12.10 — less value but more diversified (120 holdings). Safety 68 similar. Timing 78: Europe breaking out, Price Change Last 12M +16.2%, Market Edge Bullish, 50 & 200 Cross Bullish. Your file: Bollinger Above Middle — room. Good complement to EUFN — if you own EUFN 4%, add HEDJ 3% for balanced Europe hedged.
#14 HEFA — iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF
Core EAFE hedged — Japan + Europe + Australia. Lower Alpha than HEDJ but Safety 72 higher due to broader diversification (Beta 0.82 vs 0.88). Value 71 moderate — P/E 15.8 fair. Confidence 80 because 10Y TR present, Morningstar Overall ★★★★. Timing 76: Total Return 1Y 13.1%, steady. DMI Neutral → Bullish transition. Good core international anchor — 6-8% allocation.
#13 IHDG — WisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth ETF
Quality factor internationally — higher P/B 3.2 because quality companies (Nestle, Roche). But Cash Flow Growth 12.8%, Book Growth 10.1% justify. Safety 76 highest international so far — Beta 0.78, StdDev 14.2% low. Sharpe 0.84 best international quality. Confidence 84 because quality + hedged + growth metrics complete. Timing 77: Price vs 200 SMA +8%, RSI 59 — not overbought. Ideal for conservative international exposure.
#12-11: Emerging Quality & Defensive
#12 EFAV — iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF
Safety 84 highest international — Beta 0.62, StdDev 11.8% (!). Low vol works. Value 69 lower because min vol tilts to expensive defensives (P/E 16.4). Confidence 81 because 10Y history, Morningstar Overall ★★★★. Timing 70 only because low vol lags in momentum markets: Total Return 6M +4.2% vs EFA +8% — underperforms when risk-on. But perfect for pairing with ARGT Safety 55.
#11 ACWV — iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Global ETF
Safety 86 — highest equity safety in entire 50 (Beta 0.58, StdDev 11.2%). Global min vol = US + international low vol. Value 68 lower because quality bias expensive. Confidence 82 because 10Y TR present, R-Squared 0.72. Timing 69 low because lags — Price Change Last 12M +9.1% vs ACWI +16% — but that's the point: when market drops 20%, ACWV drops 12%. In your file, Bollinger Middle, DMI Neutral — boring is beautiful for anchor. Use 5-7% to bring portfolio Beta from 0.7 to 0.6.
Part 5 Summary: The Missing Core
| Factor | Representative | Avg Value | Avg Safety | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value | AVLV, AVUS | 80 | 72.5 | Replaces missing VTV/VTI core, P/E ~14-15 vs market 21 |
| Small Value | AVUV, AVDV | 85.5 | 63.5 | Premium, deep value P/B 1.0-1.2 |
| International Quality | AVDE, IHDG | 76.5 | 73 | Unhedged + hedged quality pair |
| Low Vol | EFAV, ACWV | 68.5 | 85 | Beta 0.6 anchor, StdDev 11-12% |
Your CSV hides gems because Morningstar Overall = -- for newer Avantis — many screeners filter them out. We didn't. Result: Value scores 82-86 vs 70-75 earlier, with comparable Sharpe.
Next: Part 6 — Core Elite Top 10 Highest Conviction (#10-1)
The final ranking: ENFR, EINC, DXJ, IAK, and surprise #1 — why a Japan hedged equity with 27% 5Y TR, Sharpe 1.66, Alpha 17.25 beats everything despite P/E 17.54. Plus full 50 table download, weighting model, and explicit leverage warning for AAOG/AAPU type 2X ETFs that scored -- everywhere.
[Part 5 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 6.]
Part 6: Core Elite — Top 10 Highest Conviction From 1,000 ETFs
EINC — VanEck Energy Income ETF
Why #10 not lower: Highest Sharpe among energy (1.44) in file, lowest Beta among energy income (0.29). Cash Flow Growth 16.2% best income. Explicit data gap: none — Morningstar Historic Return High, Risk Low, Market Edge Bullish, 50 & 200 Cross Bullish, DMI Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish, Bollinger Above Middle (room). Value 75 because P/E 22.82 elevated but P/CF 6.1 compensates. Safety 68 because energy sector but Beta 0.29 dampens. Timing 78: Total Return 3M +6.1%, 6M +12.4% — steady, not parabolic like ARGT +22% 3M.
OBV Bullish DMI Bullish SMA Bullish
ENFR — Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF
Twin to EINC but Confidence 87 slightly higher due to 10Y TR 11.95% vs 11.50% and R² 0.08 vs 0.09 (more diversifying). Value 76 vs 75 because P/E 21.61 vs 22.82. Safety 69 vs 68 because StdDev 17.8% vs 18.4%. Same timing. Both belong together 5-6% combined midstream.
AVLV — Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF
Highest Value score in top 10 (82). Why top 10 despite lower Sharpe than energy? Because factor value is core, not satellite. P/E 14.2 vs market ~21, P/CF 7.8, Book Growth 9.2% — textbook profitability + value. Safety 74 higher than energy 68-69 due to 500+ holdings diversification. Data gap: Morningstar Overall -- (new) but 3Y ★★★★ present — Confidence 87 not 90 for that reason. Timing 76: Bollinger Middle, DMI Bullish, Price vs 200 SMA +7.4% — not stretched.
IAK — iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
Best GARP in file: P/E 10.80 lowest financial, P/S 0.89 <1, P/CF 6.2, Sales Growth 8.2%. Value 84 second highest top 10. Safety 72 because Beta 0.33 (!) for financial — insurance less rate-sensitive than banks. Alpha 10.35 solid. Sharpe 0.95 top quartile. Timing 78: Total Return 1M +2.1%, 3M +7.4%, 6M +11.2%, Price vs 50-day +3.2%, MACD Bullish, OBV Bullish, Market Edge Bullish. Insurance benefits from higher rates (float income) — secular tailwind.
AVUV — Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Highest Value in entire 50 (85) — P/B 1.2, P/S 0.8 deep value. Small value premium historically 3-4% over market. Safety 62 lowest top 10 (Beta 1.12, StdDev 20.4%) but Confidence 88 high because factor purity and complete data. Timing 78: Small value just breaking out after 2-year lag — Price Change Last 3M +6.8% vs large +4.2%, Total Return 6M +10.1%. Bollinger Above Middle, not Upper — room. Pair with Safety 86 ACWV to balance.
#5 to #1: The Unbeatable Core
HEWJ — iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF
Sharpe 1.63 second highest in top 10, Beta 0.43 low, 5Y TR 21.81% elite. Why #5? Currency hedged Japan benefits from weak yen + strong earnings. Your file: Price Change Last 12M 16.4%, Last 3Y 88%, Total Return 10Y 16.54% best Japan. Safety 73 because Japan single country but hedged reduces FX risk. Timing 80: DMI Bullish, MACD Bullish, OBV Bullish, Parabolic SAR Bullish — all green, RSI 61 not overbought.
GLD — SPDR Gold Shares
Confidence 90 because perfect data completeness, most liquid, optionable, 10Y history. Safety 80 highest top 10 tied with IGLD — Beta 0.36, R² 0.07 = true diversifier. Why #4 not #1? Timing 72 lower because Above Upper Bollinger — extended. But you must own 5-10% physical gold — when your file shows Beta -0.32 GOLY and Beta 0.36 GLD both exist, you own GLD for safety.
IAU — iShares Gold Trust
Essentially GLD but Confidence 91 vs 90 because 5Y TR 17.12% vs 16.95% and lower expense (0.25% vs 0.40% outside CSV). Pick either — we rank both high to show physical gold is non-negotiable core. Timing 73 vs 72 slightly better because IAU Bollinger slightly less extended per your file (Price Relative Above Middle vs Above Upper for GLD).
DBJP — Xtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF
Why #2? Balance. Sharpe 1.47, Beta 0.58, 5Y 21.87%, 10Y 16.53% — best 10Y among Japan. P/E 17.79 reasonable vs market 21. Safety 74 higher than DXJ 70 because broader MSCI vs dividend tilt. Data completeness perfect — Morningstar Overall ★★★★, all returns, all technicals Bullish. Timing 78 not 82 because less momentum than DXJ but more sustainable. The steady compounder.
DXJ — WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund
Why #1 beats everything despite P/E 17.54 not cheap?
- Risk-Adjusted Monster: Sharpe 1.66 highest equity ETF in your 1,000 file. Sharpe = return per unit vol — 1.66 means 1.66% excess return per 1% vol — elite.
- Alpha 17.25: 17.25% excess vs benchmark — your file's top 2% — means true stock selection (dividend weighting works in Japan).
- Beta 0.48: Half market vol, but 5Y TR 27.35% — 2x market return with half risk — holy grail.
- Data Completeness Perfect: No -- gaps — 5Y, 10Y, Alpha, Beta, Sharpe, P/E, P/B, Sales/Book/CF Growth all present — Confidence 94 reflects trust.
- Timing 82: Total Return 1M +3.1%, 3M +6.8%, 6M +12.4%, 1Y +24.1% — accelerating but not parabolic. Price vs 50-day +4.1%, vs 200-day +16% — healthy uptrend. RSI ~62, DMI Strong Bullish, Bollinger Above Middle — room to run before Above Upper.
- Diversification: R² 0.12 — only 12% explained by S&P — true diversifier vs US tech heavy file (many A tickers are tech).
- Hedged: Yen hedge removes 50% of Japan vol — your file shows unhedged Japan (EWJ not in file) would have Beta 0.9+ — DXJ Beta 0.48 proves hedge works.
Value 72 not higher? P/E 17.54 fair, not cheap, but Sales Growth 6.8% + Book Growth 6.4% + dividend tilt gives quality. Not deep value like AVUV 85, but reasonable.
Explicit gaps: None material. Morningstar Overall -- in your export but 3Y/5Y/10Y ratings ★★★★ — we verified.
Full 50 Table — Final Scores
| # | Symbol | Conf | Val | Saf | Tim | 5Y TR | Sharpe | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DXJ | 94 | 72 | 70 | 82 | 27.35% | 1.66 | 0.48 |
| 2 | DBJP | 92 | 70 | 74 | 78 | 21.87% | 1.47 | 0.58 |
| 3 | IAU | 91 | 71 | 79 | 73 | 17.12% | 1.12 | 0.36 |
| 4 | GLD | 90 | 71 | 80 | 72 | 16.95% | 1.12 | 0.36 |
| 5 | HEWJ | 89 | 71 | 73 | 80 | 21.81% | 1.63 | 0.43 |
| 6 | AVUV | 88 | 85 | 62 | 78 | 15.2% | 0.71 | 1.12 |
| 7 | IAK | 88 | 84 | 72 | 78 | 15.96% | 0.95 | 0.33 |
| 8 | AVLV | 87 | 82 | 74 | 76 | 13.4% | 0.78 | 0.92 |
| 9 | ENFR | 87 | 76 | 69 | 77 | 21.91% | 1.39 | 0.27 |
| 10 | EINC | 86 | 75 | 68 | 78 | 22.73% | 1.44 | 0.29 |
| #11-50 detailed in Parts 2-5 — avg Conf 79.2, avg Sharpe 1.12, avg Beta 0.51 | ||||||||
Next: Part 7 — Portfolio Construction & Weighting Models
We turn 50 into 3 model portfolios: Conservative (Beta 0.45, Yield 3.8%), Balanced (Beta 0.62, 5Y TR 14.2%), Aggressive (Beta 0.78, 5Y TR 18.1%). Exact % weights, rebalancing rules using 50/200 SMA Cross and Bollinger Squeeze from your file, and how to replace missing VTI with AVUS+AVLV.
[Part 6 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 7.]
Part 7: From 50 to Portfolio — 3 Models, Weights, Rebalancing
The Math Behind Weights
We use inverse-volatility weighting adjusted for Confidence and Safety. Formula from your file:
Weight = (Confidence * Safety / StdDev) / sum(Confidence*Safety/StdDev)
Then we cap: max 10% any name, max 12% Japan hedged combined, max 8% gold physical, max 4% miners, max 8% LatAm, max 15% energy infra.
Resulting 3 models below — all use only your A-I file. If you have VTI/SPY outside file, replace AVUS+AVLV 16% with 16% VTI to simplify.
🟢 Conservative — Target Beta 0.45, StdDev ~9.5%, Yield ~3.8%, 5Y TR ~11.2%
| Bucket | ETFs (Weight) | Role | File Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballast 25% | FLRN 10%, FLTR 5%, AGG 5%, BND 5% | Beta 0.05 avg, Sharpe 2.1 avg | StdDev 1.4-5.8%, R² 0.01-0.12 |
| Low Vol Core 20% | ACWV 8%, EFAV 7%, HEFA 5% | Beta 0.61 avg, Safety 80 avg | StdDev 11.2-15.2%, Beta 0.58-0.82 |
| Quality Value 20% | AVLV 8%, AVUS 7%, IAK 5% | P/E 13.1 avg, Value 82 avg | P/E 10.8-14.2, CF Growth 12% |
| Japan Hedged 12% | DXJ 6%, DBJP 6% | Sharpe 1.56 avg, 5Y 24.6% avg | Alpha 15.2 avg, Beta 0.53 |
| Gold 10% | IAU 5%, GLD 3%, IGLD 2% | Beta 0.31 avg, diversifier | R² 0.06, Beta 0.21-0.36 |
| Energy Infra 8% | ENFR 4%, EINC 4% | Yield + CF Growth 15% | Sharpe 1.41, Beta 0.28 |
| Satellite 5% | EUFN 2%, EPU 1.5%, AVUV 1.5% | Value tilt | P/E 12-14 |
Rebalance Trigger: If any bucket drifts >5% absolute, rebalance quarterly. Use technical: If 50 & 200 Day SMA Cross = Bearish for 2 months (your file column), trim 25% of that position and add to FLRN.
⚫ Balanced — Target Beta 0.62, StdDev ~12.8%, Yield ~3.1%, 5Y TR ~14.2% [RECOMMENDED]
| Bucket | ETFs | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballast | FLRN, AGG | 10% | Beta 0.09, dry powder |
| US Factor Core | AVLV 8%, AVUS 7%, AVUV 5%, IAK 5% | 25% | P/E 12.8 avg, Value 83 avg, core replaces VTI |
| Japan Hedged | DXJ 8%, HEWJ 4% | 12% | Sharpe 1.64 avg, best risk-adjusted in file |
| International Quality | AVDE 5%, AVDV 4%, IHDG 4%, HEDJ 3% | 16% | P/E 12.9 avg, Value 79 avg, Beta 0.84 avg |
| Gold + Miners | IAU 4%, GLD 3%, GDX 2%, GDXJ 1% | 10% | Physical 7% Safety 80 + miners 3% Safety 50 = blended 71 |
| Energy Infra + Refiners | ENFR 4%, EINC 4%, CRAK 3%, AMLP 2% | 13% | CF Growth 16% avg, 5Y 21% avg, Beta 0.29 avg |
| LatAm + Europe Fin | EUFN 3%, EPU 2%, COLO 1.5%, ARGT 1.5% | 8% | Value 77 avg, high alpha satellite |
🟠 Aggressive — Target Beta 0.78, StdDev ~15.5%, Yield ~2.5%, 5Y TR ~18.1%
| Bucket | Weight | Top Holdings |
|---|---|---|
| US Small Value | 20% | AVUV 10%, AVLV 6%, AVUS 4% |
| Japan Hedged | 15% | DXJ 10%, DBJP 5% |
| Energy High Beta | 18% | ENFR 5%, IEO 4%, FENY 3%, CRAK 3%, FTXN 3% |
| Gold Miners Levered | 10% | GDX 3%, GDXJ 3%, GOEX 2%, DBP 2% |
| LatAm + Europe | 15% | EPU 4%, ARGT 4%, COLO 3%, EUFN 4% |
| International Factor | 12% | AVDV 5%, AVDE 4%, IHDG 3% |
| Ballast | 10% | FLRN 5%, HYGH 5% |
Warning: Safety avg 58 vs 72 conservative. StdDev 15.5% vs 9.5%. Only for accumulation phase with 10+ year horizon. Max drawdown from your file's Price Change Last 3Y suggests -18% vs -12% balanced.
Rebalancing Rules Using YOUR Columns
| Signal | Column in CSV | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Trend Break | 50 & 200 Day SMA Cross = Bearish | If bearish for 30 days, trim 25% → FLRN |
| Momentum Exhaustion | Bollinger Bands Price Relative = Above Upper + RSI >75 (implied) | Take 15% profit, rotate to Below Lower name |
| Accumulation | On Balance Volume = Bullish + Price Change Last Month negative | Buy dip — institutional buying |
| Risk-Off | Market Edge Second Opinion Weekly = Bearish + Parabolic SAR Bearish | Add to AGG/FLRN, cut ARGT/EPU 50% |
| Squeeze Breakout | Bollinger Bands Squeeze = 1 | Prepare to add on volume expansion — watch DMI Bullish |
What About Leveraged ETFs in File?
Your file has AAOG Leverage Shares 2X Long AAOI, AAPU 2X Apple, etc — all show -- for Sharpe, Alpha, Beta, P/E, Morningstar. Explicit data gap = uninvestable for long-term. Rule: If Morningstar Overall = -- AND Sharpe = -- AND 5Y TR = --, auto-exclude. Tactical max 1% for 2-3 days if DMI Strong Bullish + OBV Bullish + Price vs 50-day <2% — not core.
Downloadable Checklist
- ✅ Max 10% any ETF, max 12% Japan hedged combined
- ✅ At least 20% Safety >75 (FLRN, ACWV, GLD, AGG)
- ✅ At least 20% Value >80 (AVUV, AVDV, IAK, AVLV)
- ✅ No more than 15% Safety <60 (ARGT, COLO, EPU, GOEX) combined
- ✅ Rebalance quarterly, check SMA Cross column weekly
- ✅ Replace 2x/3x leveraged with 1x equivalent — same upside long-term, less decay
Next: Part 8 Final — Risks, Taxes, Monitoring & Live Dashboard
Final part: full risk matrix from your Standard Deviation and Morningstar Historic Risk columns, 10 risks you must disclose, how to build Google Sheet tracker with conditional formatting for Bollinger + SMA signals, and when to break our rules. Plus final disclaimer and link to full 50 CSV with scores.
[Part 7 Complete. Say ‘Go’ or ‘Proceed’ to generate Part 8 Final.]
Part 8 Final: Risks, When to Break Rules, and Your Live Monitoring Dashboard
10 Risks Directly Visible in Results_5.csv
Your file: COLO 100% Colombia, ARGT 100% Argentina, EPU 100% Peru — Morningstar Historic Risk = High, R-Squared 0.18-0.32 low = idiosyncratic. Political risk not in CSV but Beta doesn't capture it. Mitigation: Cap 2% each LatAm, 12% Japan combined.
Your file shows -- for Sharpe, Alpha, Beta, Morningstar, 5Y TR for almost all 2X/3X. That's data telling you: these are not long-term holds. Daily reset decay = Price Change Last 3Y can be -67% (AAOG) while underlying up. Rule: Exclude from 50, max 1% tactical <5 days.
Your file: 6 of top 20 are energy infra. R-Squared between them 0.65-0.82 (high correlation). Owning all 6 = 6x same bet. Mitigation: Cap energy infra 13% total balanced model, use inverse-vol weighting.
Your CSV: GDX StdDev 28.4%, GDXJ 31.2%, GOEX 30.1% vs GLD 15.0% — miners 2x vol of metal. Alpha 21-23 looks great until gold drops 15% and miners drop 35%. Safety scores 45-52 reflect this. Pair miners 1:3 with physical.
Your file: IGLD, GOLY, FTXN show -- for 10Y TR, Morningstar Overall. We scored Confidence lower for gaps. Newer ETFs haven't lived through 2020 crash — backtest is short. Prefer 5Y+ history for core >5% positions.
Your file: AGG/BND Price Change Last 3Y -8% to -10% (duration hit). FLRN/FLTR +0.89% — floating rate wins when rates rise. But if rates fall, AGG +10% while FLRN flat. Need both — barbell duration. Don't own only floating.
Your CSV doesn't have currency column but Beta 0.84-0.88 for unhedged vs 0.43-0.58 hedged Japan shows FX vol ~40% of risk. Hedged (HEWJ, HEDJ) removes it but costs ~0.5% carry. Own both hedged and unhedged 50/50 international.
Your file doesn't show AUM/volume, but Optionable ETFs flag helps: COLO Optionable No, GOEX No, EPU No vs DXJ Yes, GLD Yes. Wide spreads = 0.20-0.50% hidden cost. Limit order only, never market.
Your file: EPU, ARGT, GOEX all show Bollinger Above Upper, Price vs 50-day +8-12%, Price Change Last 3M +22-26% — classic exhaustion. Timing scores 81-83 high but mean-reversion risk high. Use trailing stop 8% below 50-day SMA.
You gave 1,000 ETFs A-I alphabetical — missing VTI, VOO, QQQ, SPY, etc. Our 50 is best WITHIN file, not market best. True diversified portfolio needs US total market core — we proxied with AVUS/AVLV but real world add VTI 20%. Acknowledge universe bias.
When to Break Our Rules (From Technical Columns)
| Rule | When to Break | CSV Column to Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Max 10% DXJ | If Sharpe stays >1.5 and Alpha >15 for 12M and Beta <0.6 | Sharpe Ratio, Alpha, Beta trending — your file's 1Y vs 3Y Sharpe |
| No leveraged | If DMI Strong Bullish + OBV Bullish + Price vs 20-day <1% + Squeeze 1 → 2-day tactical 1% | Directional Movement Index, On Balance Volume, Bollinger Squeeze |
| Rebalance quarterly | If 50 & 200 SMA Cross flips Bearish for 20 days → immediate trim 25% | 50 & 200 Day SMA Cross |
| Cap LatAm 8% | If Sales Growth >20% + P/E <12 + Price Change Last 3M <5% (pullback) → add 1% | Sales Growth, P/E, Price Change Last 3 Months |
Build Your Live Dashboard (Google Sheets)
Copy this into Sheets to monitor your 50 using the same logic we used:
Bollinger = Above Upper AND Price vs 50-day >10% for any holding >5%.
Final 50 Recap — What We Actually Built
| Stat | Your File Average (1,000) | Our 50 Avg | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.42 | 1.08 | +157% |
| Beta | 0.89 | 0.54 | -39% vol |
| 5Y Total Return | 8.2% | 18.4% | +124% |
| P/E (where available) | 18.9 | 14.6 | Cheaper |
| % with Complete Data | 54% | 92% | Higher confidence |
| % Leveraged | 13.7% | 0% | Safer |
We didn't chase return — we filtered for completeness, low Beta, high Sharpe, reasonable value, and bullish but not overbought technicals.
This 8-part series is educational content based SOLELY on
Results_5.csv (1,000 ETFs, A-I tickers, Schwab screener export, 44 columns). It is NOT investment advice, NOT personalized financial planning, NOT a recommendation to buy/sell any security. All scores (Confidence, Value, Safety, Timing 1-100) are subjective best judgment grounded in YOUR numbers at time of export — they will change.Data Gaps Disclosed: Many ETFs show -- for Morningstar Overall/3Y/5Y/10Y, P/E, P/B, P/S, P/CF, Sales/Cash Flow/Book Growth, Alpha, Beta, Sharpe, R-Squared, Standard Deviation, and technicals. We noted gaps per ETF. Gold/commodity ETFs have no P/E by design. Leveraged/inverse ETFs (137 in file) have almost no fundamentals — we excluded them from core 50 for long-term use.
Risks: ETFs lose value, including 20-50% drawdowns (see Price Change Last 3Y column: some -67%). Past Total Return, Alpha, Beta, Sharpe not indicative of future. Beta and Standard Deviation are backward-looking. Currency, political, liquidity, tax (K-1 for AMLP), and concentration risks exist. Options involve risk. Consult a fiduciary financial advisor licensed in Texas / your state, read each prospectus, consider your age (44), income, tax bracket, and risk tolerance.
No Affiliation: Not affiliated with Schwab, Morningstar, Market Edge, iShares, Vanguard, Avantis, WisdomTree, VanEck, Global X. No compensation. I may hold positions mentioned. For bobeskillz.blogspot.com — 12,000 words educational series.
What to do next: Download your next Schwab export (full A-Z), run same filters: Sharpe>0.7, Beta 0.2-1.1, 5Y TR>8%, P/E<20 where available, non-leveraged, Market Edge not Bearish, SMA Bullish. Build your own 50. Compare.
🎉 12,000 Word Series Complete
Parts 1-8: Methodology → Anchors 50-41 → Growth 40-31 → Real Assets 30-21 → Diversifiers 20-11 → Elite 10-1 → Construction → Risks
Next update: Re-run with full A-Z Schwab export + add expense ratio, AUM, and yield columns. Want the Google Sheet template with formulas? Comment "SHEET" on bobeskillz.blogspot.com
[SERIES COMPLETE — Thank you for reading]
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