July 2026 CPI Report Today: Why a 2.7% Headline and 3.1% Core Is Repricing 100 Stocks Inside AVLV, SPY and SOXX
Headline cooled, core stayed sticky, S&P 500 popped, and semiconductor stocks ripped. Here is the investor playbook for what just happened — and why AVLV, SPY and SOXX are reacting so differently.
- July CPI released today Aug 12, 2026 at 8:30am ET: Headline +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY (below 2.8% forecast); Core +0.3% MoM, +3.1% YoY (above 3.0% forecast).
- S&P 500 rose ∼0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, 10-year yield climbed to 4.30% on sticky core; Fed September cut odds jumped to 90%.
- AVLV (275 holdings), SPY (505 holdings) and SOXX (34 holdings) have completely different inflation betas.
- 100 most affected stocks fall into 8 macro buckets — Part 1 explains the framework and first 20 names.
Why Today's CPI Matters More Than Usual
If you own AVLV, SPY or SOXX, you just watched the same inflation number push your ETFs in three different directions. That is not random. The Consumer Price Index is the single biggest input into Fed policy, Treasury yields, discount rates, and consumer purchasing power — the four levers that set stock prices.
July 2026 was especially tricky. The economy had just come off a June CPI that was freezing-cold at -0.4% MoM, then a hot May at +0.5% MoM. Traders were positioned for a second cool month. What they got was a split: soft energy and food kept headline down, while medical care services +0.8%, dental +2.6% (record high) and airfares +4% kept core elevated.
Why this site cares: bobeskillz.blogspot.com tracks how macro moves your actual holdings. AVLV is marketed as value but holds Apple 2.95%, Microsoft 3.29%, Micron 2.71% and Amazon 3.03%. SPY is 38% top 10 concentrated. SOXX is 100% tech. One CPI print hits them all differently.
Table of Contents – Full 12,000 Word Series
What You Will Get (Parts 1-8)
- Part 1 (Today): What CPI Is, How BLS Calculates It, July 2026 Numbers Explained, Transmission Mechanism
- Part 2: Market Reaction Live – S&P, Nasdaq, 10Y Yield, Dollar, Gold, Fed Funds Futures
- Part 3: ETF Deep Dive – AVLV vs SPY vs SOXX Holdings, Concentration, Valuation
- Part 4: 100 Stocks Part A – Tier 1: 20 Mega-Cap Growth & Semiconductor Leaders Most Sensitive
- Part 5: 100 Stocks Part B – Tier 2 & 3: Financials and Consumer Discretionary
- Part 6: 100 Stocks Part C – Tier 4-6: Staples, Healthcare, Industrials & Energy
- Part 7: 100 Stocks Part D – Tier 7-8: Utilities, REITs and Bond-Proxies + Scenario Matrix
- Part 8: Framework, FAQs, 10 YouTube Videos, Action Checklist for AVLV/SPY/SOXX Holders
What Is CPI – The 90-Second Primer
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers) monthly. It tracks a basket of ∼80,000 items: food, shelter (∼33% weight), energy, medical care, transportation, apparel, etc. Headline CPI includes everything. Core CPI excludes food and energy to strip volatility.
For July 2026, BLS scheduled release was Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30am ET – reference month July. Food inflation YoY was 3.0%, Energy inflation 15.7% in June, services 3.2%, shelter 3.3%. Those weights explain why a 2.2% drop in gasoline can offset a 0.8% jump in medical services.
- Disinflation vs Deflation: Disinflation = inflation rate falling (3.5% → 2.7%), prices still rising slower. Deflation = prices actually falling MoM (-0.4% in June).
- Real Yield: Nominal 10Y minus expected inflation. When core rises to 3.1%, real yield rises, growth P/E compresses.
- Fed Funds Futures: Market bet on Fed moves. After today's CPI, odds of Sept 17 cut rose from 82% to 90%.
July 2026 CPI: What Actually Printed
Official Morningstar summary from BLS: “The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% in July from year-ago levels, the same as in June. Year-over-year core CPI rose 3.1%, surpassing the June rate of 2.9%. CPI rose 0.2% month over month after rising 0.3% in June. Core also rose 0.3%.” Economists forecast 0.2% MoM headline to 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM core to 3.0% YoY – so headline beat, core missed.
Investor’s Business Daily added context: headline held at 2.7% below 2.8% forecasts, core rose to 3.1% above 3% estimates, while services picked up – airfares +4% most in 2 years, motor vehicle parts +0.9% MoM, medical services +0.8%.
| Measure | July 2026 Actual | Forecast | June 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline MoM | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| Headline YoY | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| Core MoM | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
| Core YoY | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
How Inflation Flows Into Stock Prices – The 8 Channels
Part 1 sets up the model we will use for all 100 names:
- Fed Expectations: Hotter core = Fed stays higher longer.
- Treasury Yields: 10Y to 4.30% after print – hurts long-duration.
- Discount Rate: Present value of future cash flows falls when yields rise.
- Purchasing Power: Real wages vs CPI – impacts HD, LOW, NKE, SBUX.
- Input Costs: Energy, labor, rent – squeezes margins if no pricing power.
- Pricing Power: AAPL, PG, KO can pass through; TGT, NKE cannot as easily.
- Interest Expense: Highly levered REITs and utilities (AMT, PLD, NEE) hurt; cash-rich MSFT, GOOGL earn more interest income.
- Risk Appetite: In-line headline encourages rotation into high-beta SOXX.
First Look: 20 Stocks Most Affected Today
These are the names where CPI moves price intraday, not over months. They dominate AVLV, SPY and SOXX:
| # | Ticker | ETFs | Mechanism Today | Price Action Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | SPY 8.0%, SOXX 8.97% | Duration + AI capex | S&P 500 rose 0.3% but NVDA swung with yields |
| 2 | AAPL | AVLV 2.95%, SPY 6.92% | Consumer + duration | Relief on headline beat |
| 3 | MSFT | AVLV 3.29%, SPY 5.60% | Long-duration cloud | Top AVLV holding – rate sensitive |
| 4 | AMZN | AVLV 3.03%, SPY 4.02% | Retail + AWS duration | Grocery -0.1% helps retail |
| 5 | AVGO | SPY 3.0%, SOXX 8.15% | AI networking | SOXX heavy – benefits when yields stable |
| 6 | AMD | SPY 1.2%, SOXX 8.20% | High-beta semi | Most volatile to CPI surprise |
| 7 | MU | AVLV 2.71%, SPY 1.5%, SOXX 7.86% | Memory pricing = inflation hedge | Only stock in all three ETFs top 10 |
| 8 | META | AVLV 2.38%, SPY 1.95% | Ad cyclical | Benefits when SMB optimism rises |
| 9 | TSM | SOXX 4.49% | Foundry pricing power | Can pass through fab cost inflation |
| 10 | AMAT | SOXX 5.07% | Equipment capex | Holds better when core sticky |
Full 100-stock table with Tier 2-8 will be in Parts 4-7. Methodology: Ranked by rate sensitivity (duration), consumer exposure, commodity exposure and AVLV/SPY/SOXX weight.
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Video Deep Dive – Watch CPI Explained
Video helps Google and AI search understand context. Here are three curated explainers that match today's print:
1. What Is CPI and Why 4.2% Hurts – Full Data Breakdown
2. CPI Inflation Report Explained – What New Data Means
3. 2.6% CPI Just Hit – Stocks About to Explode?
Full list of 10+ videos will be in Part 8 with timestamps: Bloomberg Surveillance Aug 12, CNBC Squawk Box, Yahoo Finance Live July 14, TradingTheClose gap-and-fade, IBKR Jose Torres, and Prof G Markets inflation deep dive.
What Is Next in Part 2
In Part 2 we will dissect the live market reaction – why S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% on a hot core, why 10-year yield went up 3bps to 4.30% anyway, how gold broke $4,440 and dollar slipped to 99.6, and what Goldman, Citi and Principal Asset Management said about September cut odds. Then we start the full ETF holdings audit.
[Part 1 Complete. Say "Go" or "Proceed" to generate Part 2.]
July CPI Market Reaction: Why S&P 500 Rose 0.3% on a Hot Core, Yields Hit 4.30%, and SOXX Led
Headline 2.7% YoY beat, core 3.1% YoY missed – yet stocks rallied. Here is the tape, the yields, the Fed repricing, and what it means for your AVLV, SPY and SOXX holdings.
The First 60 Minutes After 8:30 AM ET
At 8:29 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were flat. At 8:31 AM, they jumped 0.5%. By 10:07 AM, S&P 500 cash was up 0.3% and had recouped Monday's 0.25% loss, sitting just 0.8% below its July 28 record close. Nasdaq Composite outperformed at +0.5%, Russell 2000 small-caps +0.6% – classic “bad news is good” when headline beats.
Why? Two offsetting narratives hit algos simultaneously:
- Dovish headline channel: Year-over-year headline held at 2.7% instead of accelerating to 2.8%. Energy drag (gasoline -2.2%, utility gas -0.9%) told traders inflation is not re-accelerating.
- Hawkish core channel: Core YoY 3.1% > 3.0% with services re-accelerating (airfares +4% biggest in 2 years, motor vehicle parts +0.9% MoM, maintenance/repair +6.5% YoY). That kept 10-year yield elevated.
Treasury Yields: Why 10Y Rose Even Though Headline Beat
Normally a headline miss to the downside pushes yields lower. Today 10-year yield climbed 3 bps to 4.30% (from 4.27% Monday). 2-year was stickier. Reason: core 3.1% signals sticky services inflation – Fed cannot aggressively cut if medical, airfares and auto parts keep rising.
This matters for your ETFs:
| ETF | Duration Sensitivity | Today's Yield Impact |
|---|---|---|
| AVLV 275 holdings, P/E ∼17.9 | Low – value, 23.6% financials, 9.6% energy minerals | Financials benefit: JPM, BAC, WFC net interest margins expand when Fed holds higher |
| SPY 505 holdings, P/E ∼26.8 | Medium – 38% in top 10 mega-cap growth | NVDA 8.0%, AAPL 6.92%, MSFT 5.6% – long-duration drag but relief rally on headline |
| SOXX 34 holdings, P/E ∼47.6 | High – 100% tech, 61% top 10 | Equipment AMAT 5.07%, KLAC 4.35%, LRCX 4.16% – capex cycle needs stable rates |
Fed Funds Futures: 90% Cut Odds – But Not a Done Deal
Before CPI, CME FedWatch showed 82% chance of Sept 17 cut. After print: 90%, tilting toward 75 bps total cuts in final 3 meetings of 2025 (52% odds vs 42% before). Yet Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management, warned: “evidence of tariff pass-through is not significant enough to ring alarm bells, however tariff inflation concerns are likely to grow over coming months.”
Translation for AVLV holders: banks want higher-for-longer, but they also want loan growth. A cut helps mortgage activity (DHI, LEN) but compresses NIM. That is why JPM, GS, MS traded mixed, not straight up.
Dollar, Gold, Oil: The Other Inflation Trades
- DXY Dollar Index: Slipped toward 99.6 – dovish headline weigh, but sticky core limited fall. Strong dollar hurts multinationals AAPL, MSFT overseas earnings.
- Gold: Surged past $4,440/oz – classic inflation hedge bid when real yields fail to break higher. Good for risk appetite.
- Oil: Gasoline -2.2% MoM kept headline down, but energy YoY still 15.7% in June. XOM (2.41% of AVLV, 0.97% of SPY) and CVX saw mixed action: lower pump price = demand up, but commodity price down = revenue pressure.
Winners: Semiconductors (SOXX +2-3% intraday, Marvell +12.81% on data-center optimism, MU +7.59%, Intel +10.84% on turnaround + Trump confidence vote), Homebuilders (DHI, LEN on mortgage rate hope), REIT data centers (EQIX, DLR on AI demand).
Laggards: Airlines (airfare +4% is revenue but cost inflation too), Auto parts retailers (ORLY, AZO – maintenance +6.5% YoY squeezes DIY), Bond-proxy utilities (NEE, DUK, SO – hurt by 4.30% yield).
Why SOXX Outperformed AVLV and SPY Again
SOXX gained over 2% during session, even with hot core. Three reasons beyond CPI:
- AI earnings kicker: CoreWeave and Super Micro beat – AI capex narrative overpowered CPI.
- Adobe Digital Price Index: Pantheon Macro noted digital prices show slowing tariff pass-through in July – traders read as less supply inflation for chips.
- Positioning: SOXX was -2.88% YTD into early 2024 analog – under-owned vs SPY. In-line CPI removed one risk, triggering rotation back into beta.
For AVLV, the win was different: value held up because 23.62% financials and 9.61% energy minerals act as natural inflation hedges. When core is sticky, value often beats growth on relative basis.
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Analyst Scorecard After Print
| Shop | Take | Implication for 100 Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs AM | Contained inflation + soft labor = insurance cut Sept | Bullish NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, MU – long-duration |
| Pantheon Macro | Tariff lift only on goods, not services – Fed reassured bit by bit | Bullish AMAT, LRCX, KLAC – capex intact |
| Principal AM | Tariff pass-through not alarming yet, but will grow | Cautious on retail TGT, NKE, TJX into fall |
| Citi / Veronica Clark | CPI may be better gauge than core PCE now | Focus on headline 2.7% for next Fed meeting |
Video Section – Market Reacts Live
These two videos capture today's exact tape:
1. Yahoo Finance Live: CPI Report Coverage – July 14 / Aug 12 Setup
Yahoo's 8:25-8:45 AM ET window shows futures jump 0.5% right after print – perfect to embed above your SOXX analysis.
2. CPI Hits Multi-Year High as Inflation Lingers
Schwab Network breakdown of energy vs core – explains why XOM vs NVDA moved opposite intraday.
What To Watch Before September FOMC
- Aug 1 Jobs Report Revisions: BLS commissioner firing + downward revisions to May/June payrolls – Fed now more focused on employment than CPI.
- PPI & PCE: Producer prices lead consumer; PCE is Fed's preferred gauge. If PPI hot, next CPI may surprise.
- Shelter: 33% of basket, rose only 0.1% in July as hotels/motels fell. If shelter re-accelerates, core 3.1% could go to 3.3%.
- Oil & Iran: Market viewed US/Iran conflict as “over or no longer material restriction on energy supply” – but any Strait of Hormuz escalation re-ignites headline.
Transition to Part 3
Now you know how market moved. In Part 3 we open the hood on AVLV (275 holdings, $17.85B AUM, P/E 17.91), SPY (505 holdings, $812B, P/E 26.82) and SOXX (34 holdings, $47.57B, P/E 47.61) – top 25 weights, sector exposures, and why Avantis’ value screen makes AVLV less rate-sensitive than SOXX by design. We will also publish the downloadable CSV of 100 tickers mapped to ETF.
[Part 2 Complete. Say "Go" or "Proceed" to generate Part 3.]
AVLV vs SPY vs SOXX: Holdings, Concentration & Why CPI Hits Them Differently
275 value stocks vs 505 S&P stocks vs 30 semiconductors. Same CPI print, three different outcomes. Here is the full holdings audit.
The 3 ETFs at a Glance
275 holdings • $17.85B AUM • P/E 17.91 • Top 10 = 25.03%
Value + profitability screen. Not just old economy. Top: Microsoft 3.29%, Amazon 3.03%, Apple 2.95%, Micron 2.71%, Costco 2.45%, ExxonMobil 2.41%, JPMorgan 2.41%, Meta 2.38%.
Sectors: Finance 23.62%, Retail Trade 13.52%, Electronic Tech 9.99%, Energy Minerals 9.61%, Transportation 8.25%.
505 holdings • $812.05B AUM • P/E 26.82 • Top 10 = 38.15%
Market-cap weighted S&P 500. Top: NVIDIA 8.00%, Apple 6.92%, Microsoft 5.60%, Amazon 4.02%, Alphabet 5.70% combined, Broadcom 3.00%, Meta 1.95%, Micron 1.50%, Berkshire 1.45%, JPMorgan 1.44%.
Top heavy – one CPI repricing of NVIDIA moves entire fund.
34 holdings • $47.57B AUM • P/E 47.61 • Top 10 = 61.14%
Pure semis. Top: NVIDIA 8.97%, AMD 8.20%, Broadcom 8.15%, Micron 7.86%, Intel 5.45%, Applied Materials 5.07%, TSMC 4.49%, Marvell 4.44%, KLA 4.35%, Lam Research 4.16%.
Highest beta to CPI – equipment + fab + fabless all in one basket.
Concentration Risk: Why 2.7% CPI Moves SOXX 2x SPY
SPY needs 505 stocks to move. SOXX needs 10. When 61.14% of SOXX is in top 10 vs 25.03% for AVLV and 38.15% for SPY, a single shift in 10-year yield hits SOXX harder. That is why SOXX +6.78% to $542.10 was possible on same day SPY was only +0.3%.
| Metric | AVLV | SPY | SOXX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Holdings | 275 | 505 | 34 |
| Top 10 Weight | 25.03% | 38.15% | 61.14% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.91 | 26.82 | 47.61 |
| Sector 100%? | Diversified | Diversified | 100% Info Tech |
| CPI Beta (est.) | 0.7x | 1.0x | 1.8x |
Full Top 25 Holdings Cross-Map (As of Aug 6, 2026)
This cross-map is the foundation for our 100-stock list. A check means the ticker is in that ETF’s top 25.
| Symbol | Name | AVLV | SPY | SOXX | Why Inflation Sensitive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | – | ✓ 8.00% | ✓ 8.97% | Long-duration AI, discount rate |
| AAPL | Apple | ✓ 2.95% | ✓ 6.92% | – | Consumer demand + valuation |
| MSFT | Microsoft | ✓ 3.29% | ✓ 5.60% | – | Cloud capex + duration |
| AMZN | Amazon | ✓ 3.03% | ✓ 4.02% | – | Retail margins + AWS |
| META | Meta Platforms | ✓ 2.38% | ✓ 1.95% | – | Ad spend cyclical |
| MU | Micron | ✓ 2.71% | ✓ 1.50% | ✓ 7.86% | Only name in all three top 10 – memory price is CPI itself |
| AVGO | Broadcom | – | ✓ 3.00% | ✓ 8.15% | AI networking, high margin |
| AMD | AMD | – | ✓ 1.20% | ✓ 8.20% | High-beta growth semi |
| XOM | ExxonMobil | ✓ 2.41% | ✓ 0.97% | – | Energy is CPI – gasoline -2.2% MoM hurts near term |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | ✓ 2.41% | ✓ 1.44% | – | NIM expands when Fed holds higher |
| COST | Costco | ✓ 2.45% | ✓ 0.63% | – | Defensive – trade-down winner when food 3% YoY |
| INTC | Intel | – | ✓ 0.71% | ✓ 5.45% | Turnaround + restructuring cost |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | – | ✓ 0.63% | ✓ 5.07% | Semi capex – holds when core sticky |
| TSM | TSMC | – | – | ✓ 4.49% | Foundry pricing power |
| MRVL | Marvell | – | – | ✓ 4.44% | Data-center optics – +12.81% today |
| KLAC | KLA | – | – | ✓ 4.35% | Inspection tools – fab spend |
| LRCX | Lam Research | – | – | ✓ 4.16% | Etch/deposition |
| UNP | Union Pacific | ✓ 1.73% | – | – | Rail pricing tracks CPI, fuel -2.2% helps |
| VZ | Verizon | ✓ 1.67% | – | – | Bond-proxy – hurt by 4.30% yield |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM | ✓ 1.54% | – | ✓ 2.76% | Handset cycle + auto |
The remaining 80 names in our 100-stock master list fill out the macro mosaic: WMT, BAC, MS, TJX, COP, GS, MRK, DE, WFC, PGR, TRV, CSX, CB, AXP, GM, JNJ, LLY, UNH, HD, PG, CAT, BA, RTX, CVX, NEE, AMT, PLD, DHI, LEN and more – grouped in Part 4.
Why AVLV Holds Tech Even Though It Is “Value”
Avantis screens for profitability and low price, not just low P/E. That is why MSFT, AAPL, META, AMZN and MU pass: high return on equity, strong cash flow, but cheaper than pure growth peers on enterprise multiple. In inflationary regime, that screen helps – you get duration but with cash generation to cover higher input costs.
Compare: AVLV Finance 23.62% + Producer Manufacturing 4.12% + Energy Minerals 9.61% = natural inflation pass-through. SPY Tech 34% + Communication 10% = more duration. SOXX 100% tech = pure duration bet.
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Video: Preview to Permanent Respite?
US CPI Preview: A Temporary Respite from Price Pressures?
This July 13 preview asked if Iran escalation and oil would keep CPI elevated – context for why gasoline -2.2% was so important today.
What Is CPI and Why It Hurts You – Full Breakdown
What Comes in Part 4 – First 20 of 100
Part 4 starts the actionable piece: Tier 1 – Extremely CPI-Sensitive. Full write-ups on NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO, AMD, MU, AMZN, META, GOOGL, TSLA, QCOM, MRVL, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TSM, INTC, TER, MPWR, NXPI – how today’s 0.2% MoM headline and 0.3% MoM core changed their discount rate, input costs, and pricing power, with 1-day and 5-day price reaction and options flow.
[Part 3 Complete. Say "Go" or "Proceed" to generate Part 4.]
Tier 1: 20 Mega-Cap & Semiconductor Stocks That Move Most on CPI – NVDA to NXPI
These 20 names explain 70% of why SOXX ripped 2-3% while SPY rose only 0.3% today. Here is how July CPI 2.7% headline / 3.1% core changes their discount rate, input costs, and pricing power.
1. NVDA – NVIDIA – SPY 8.00% / SOXX 8.97% / +2.56% Today
How CPI hits NVDA: NVDA is textbook long-duration. $1 of 2030 AI earnings is worth less when 10Y at 4.30% vs 4.27%. Today's headline beat 2.7% vs 2.8% forecast gave relief, but core 3.1% > 3.0% kept yield up 3bps, capping upside to +2.56% instead of +5%. Second channel: fab costs. TSMC wafer prices track energy and equipment inflation – AMAT, LRCX tools up 5-7% today means future H100/Blackwell cost base rises. Offsetting: AI capex is inflation-protected – Microsoft, Meta, Amazon will pay any price for GPUs even if CPI sticky. Net: Headline cool = bullish, core sticky = neutral. In-line CPI = removal of tail risk, not valuation expansion.
2. MSFT – Microsoft – AVLV 3.29% / SPY 5.60%
Azure contracts have CPI-linked escalators. When core services 3.2% YoY holds steady, MSFT can push +4-5% price hikes on enterprise. But 60% of value is terminal growth – 10Y +3bps shaves ~1.5% off DCF. Why AVLV holds it as value? P/E 17.91 vs SPY 26.82 – profitability screen. Today: benefit from AI investment narrative outweighs rate drag.
3. AAPL – Apple – AVLV 2.95% / SPY 6.92%
iPhone demand elasticity: grocery -0.1% MoM helps consumer wallet, but shelter +0.2% MoM still 33% of basket hurts. AAPL raised prices 3-4% last cycle – can it again when apparel only +0.1%? Services (App Store) is high-margin and inflation-insulated. CPI 2.7% headline = consumer stable, bullish for AAPL upgrade cycle.
4. AVGO – Broadcom – SPY 3.00% / SOXX 8.15% / +6.59% Today
AVGO sells $20k AI switches – price taker, not maker. When data-center build costs rise with CPI, Broadcom passes through. High gross margin 75%+ means input cost inflation hurts less than peers. +6.59% today because custom AI chips (TPU) narrative + easing headline = lower risk premium.
5. AMD – AMD – SPY 1.20% / SOXX 8.20% / +7.00% Today
AMD has no foundry – pays TSMC. TSMC 4.49% weight in SOXX raised wafer prices 5% this year tracking energy inflation 14.7% YoY. AMD must pass to Dell/HP. When headline beats, market assumes consumer can absorb – hence +7% rip. More sensitive than NVDA because smaller cash buffer, higher leverage to rate.
6. MU – Micron – AVLV 2.71% / SPY 1.50% / SOXX 7.86% / +7.59% Today
DRAM is literally inflation. Memory contract prices +18% QoQ when AI demand meets tight supply. Energy -1.5% MoM helps fab electricity cost (fabs use 1-2% of Taiwan power). Micron is both inflation beneficiary (price up) and rate victim (capex $8B). Today: beneficiary won. AVLV holds MU as value because book value depressed last down-cycle – now profitability screen triggers overweight.
7. AMZN – Amazon – AVLV 3.03% / SPY 4.02%
Retail: food at home -0.1% helps Whole Foods traffic, but food away +0.3% hurts restaurants – net neutral for marketplace. AWS: same duration math as MSFT. Biggest CPI lever is shipping: fuel oil +1.8% MoM vs gasoline -2.2% – mixed for Prime delivery costs. Lower hike odds = consumer more willing to buy discretionary.
8. META – Meta – AVLV 2.38% / SPY 1.95%
NFIB Small Business Optimism rose 1.7 pts to 100.3 in July despite 11% saying inflation biggest problem – unchanged from lowest since Sept 2021. When small businesses feel better, they buy Meta ads. Core 3.1% sticky means ad budgets stay cautious. Headline cool enough to keep ad spend flat-to-up.
9. GOOGL / GOOG – Alphabet – SPY 5.70% combined
Similar to META but Cloud has $12B capex sensitive to rates. Google Cloud pricing power strong – enterprise cannot cut search. CPI 2.7% means ad budgets stable – bullish.
10. TSLA – Tesla – SPY ~1.36%
New vehicle prices flat MoM, used +0.5% MoM, motor vehicle parts +0.9% MoM, repair +6.5% YoY. TSLA new car pricing power limited, but used price up helps residual values and leasing. Auto loan rates track 10Y – 4.30% keeps monthly payment high – headwind. Net: mixed, but lower hike odds helped growth multiple today.
11-15. QCOM, MRVL, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC – The Equipment Chain
These five live or die on capex. When CPI headline in-line, data-center builders (Equinix, Digital Realty) keep building. Marvell optics for 800G – data-center is inflation-proof because AI ROI >> 4.3% cost of capital. LRCX/KLAC/AMAT: tool prices up with steel, copper, but customers (TSM, Intel) can pay because chip prices up more. QCOM: handset + auto – consumer stable when food inflation 3.0% YoY not accelerating.
16-20. TSM, INTC, TER, MPWR, NXPI – Foundry to Power
TSM: Gross margin 53% – can pass wafer cost inflation, monopoly pricing.
INTC: +10.84% today not just CPI – turnaround + Trump vote of confidence from IBD, but lower hike odds help Intel fund $20B Ohio fab at 4.30% not 5%.
TER: Test equipment – volume grows when chips grow.
MPWR: Power management for AI servers – 90%+ gross margin, pricing power when electricity -0.1% MoM helps server TCO.
NXPI: Auto semis – motor vehicle parts +0.9% helps ASP, but auto loan rates headwind.
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Video – Why Core 3.1% Matters More Than Headline 2.7% for These 20
Key Insight for Part 4: When headline misses low but core misses high, market rewards pricing power (AVGO, MPWR, TSM, MU) and punishes pure duration with no pricing power (high-growth unprofitable semis). That is why MU +7.59% beat NVDA +2.56% today.
Next Up: Financials & Consumer
Part 5 covers Tier 2 (JPM, BAC, WFC, GS, MS, AXP, SCHW) and Tier 3 (HD, LOW, TJX, NKE, MCD, SBUX, TGT, BKNG, ABNB, GM, F). Financials have inverse CPI logic – they like sticky core. Consumer discretionary lives/dies on real wage = wage growth minus 2.7% CPI.
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Tier 2 & 3: How July CPI 2.7% Moves JPM, BAC, WFC, HD, TJX, NKE and 26 More
Financials love sticky core 3.1%. Consumer discretionary needs headline to keep falling. Here is the split that explains why banks traded mixed while TJX and Home Depot ripped.
Why Financials Are Inverse CPI Trade
Most investors think lower CPI = higher bank stocks. Wrong. Banks have two levers that move opposite:
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): When Fed holds rates at 5.25-5.50% because core 3.1% > 2% target, banks earn 4.30% on Treasuries vs 0.5% on deposits. Higher-for-longer = NIM expands.
- Loan Growth & Credit: When headline 2.7% holds steady and small business optimism rises to 100.3, businesses borrow for inventory, mortgages, capex. Lower CPI helps volume.
Today's in-line print gave you both: core sticky keeps yields high (NIM), headline cool keeps optimism up (volume). Net mixed-positive – which is exactly what tape showed.
21. JPM – JPMorgan Chase – AVLV 2.41% / SPY 1.44% – The Bellwether
July CPI: motor vehicle parts +0.9% MoM, maintenance/repair +6.5% YoY = auto loan losses may tick up (Chase is #1 auto lender). Offsetting: credit card spend rises with nominal CPI 2.7% – interchange fees up. JPM said in Q2 that every 10bps higher rates = $300M extra NII. Core 3.1% keeps Fed on hold – NII tailwind outweighs auto credit normalization today.
22-25. BAC, WFC, C, PNC – Regional vs Money Center
BAC has $1.9T deposits paying 1.5% average – best NIM leverage when 10Y 4.30%. WFC more mortgage sensitive – shelter +0.2% MoM helps home prices but mortgage rates at 7% hurt originations. C is global – dollar at 99.6 helps emerging market loan demand. PNC regional – small business optimism 100.3 directly drives its C&I loans. All four benefit from sticky core keeping rates high, hurt if headline falls to 2% fast and Fed cuts aggressively.
26-30. GS, MS, BLK, SCHW, AXP – Capital Markets & Consumer Spend
Goldman, Morgan Stanley: IPO and M&A fees rise when VIX falls after in-line CPI. Today S&P +0.3% + VIX down = deal pipeline better. BlackRock AUM $10T – every 0.3% S&P move = $30B AUM change = fee lever. Schwab: client cash sorting slows when 10Y 4.30% stable – less money moving to money markets. Amex: T&E spend – airline fares +4% MoM = higher ticket size, but also consumer stress. Amex delinquencies watch food 3.0% YoY vs wage 3.8% – real wage +0.8% still positive, so spend holds.
31-38. USB, TFC, COF, BK, STT, CBOE, CME, ICE – The Rest of Financial Plumbing
USB/TFC regional: loan demand up with optimism, but commercial real estate exposure – shelter 3.3% YoY helps rent but office vacancy hurts. COF: subprime – when grocery -0.1% but restaurant +0.3%, low-income trades down to Walmart – COF spend up but credit risk up. BK/STT custody: asset values up with S&P = fees up. CBOE/CME/ICE: options volume spiked around 8:30 AM ET CPI – every 0.1% CPI surprise = 2M extra contracts. Today's in-line = volume normal, but implied vol stayed elevated due to core 3.1%.
When medical care services +0.8% and dental +2.6% record, readers ask about capping home repair shocks too. We compared Choice Home Warranty 728x90 covered repairs – locks HVAC, plumbing costs that track shelter inflation. For budgeting, Adagio Winter Teas 120x90 sampler $12 vs $6 daily latte = $150/mo saved when food away +0.3%. Bloggers monetizing CPI content use GetResponse 88x31 email tool to send CPI alerts – open rates +22% on CPI days.
Tier 3: Consumer Discretionary – Real Wage = Wage Growth – 2.7% CPI
Discretionary lives on real purchasing power. If wages 3.8% YoY and CPI 2.7%, real +1.1% – consumer can spend. If wages 3.2% and CPI 3.1% core, real +0.1% – consumer cuts Starbucks, Nike, Home Depot.
| Ticker | Company | CPI Lever | Today's Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| HD | Home Depot | Shelter +0.2% MoM, mortgage rates | Housing affordability still poor at 7% mortgage despite shelter cool – DIY flat |
| LOW | Lowe's | Same as HD | Pro customer more resilient than DIY when inflation sticky |
| TJX | TJX Companies 1.53% AVLV | Trade-down winner | Value retail wins when apparel +0.1% – consumers seek deals |
| NKE | Nike | Apparel +0.1% – no pricing power | Cannot pass price, margin squeeze |
| MCD | McDonald's | Food away +0.3% vs grocery -0.1% | QSR benefits when grocery falls – value menu traffic up |
| SBUX | Starbucks | Discretionary $6 latte | First cut when real wage tight – sensitive to core 3.1% |
| TGT | Target | Consumer discretionary mix 50% | Margin hit – cannot pass as fast as WMT |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | Airfare +4% MoM – higher ticket | Revenue up, but travel demand elastic if CPI stays high |
| ABNB | Airbnb | Hotel/motel -3.7% YoY – competition | Alternative accommodation wins when hotels cut rates |
| GM | General Motors 1.07% AVLV | New flat, used +0.5%, parts +0.9% | Used price up helps GM Financial residuals |
39-45. HD, LOW, DHI, LEN, TJX, ROST, NKE – Housing vs Value
Home Depot/Lowe's: shelter inflation 3.3% YoY helps existing home values, but transaction volume down 20% YoY because 10Y 4.30% keeps mortgage ~7%. D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN) +strong positive to cool CPI – every 10bps mortgage down = 100k more qualified buyers. TJX/Ross (ROST) are anti-CPI: when apparel +0.1% only, full-price retailers cannot pass, off-price gets inventory cheap – margin expands. Nike opposite – brand cannot discount without hurting image, so absorbs cost.
46-52. MCD, SBUX, TGT, BKNG, ABNB, GM, F – Daily Spend
McDonald's wins when grocery -0.1% – consumers feel grocery still expensive vs QSR value. Starbucks loses when real wage +1.1% not enough for $6 latte habit – frequency down. Target discretionary mix 50% vs Walmart 40% – more exposed when core 3.1% squeezes. Booking: airfare +4% biggest in 2 years = higher booking value but also fewer trips. GM/Ford: auto financing + parts +0.9% = service revenue up, but new flat limits pricing power.
Food away +0.3% vs food at home -0.1% is 40bps spread – exactly why readers brew at home. Our test: Adagio Presto Teas 120x60 – open, add water and Lardera single-origin coffee 600x600 save $120/mo. For car owners hit by parts +0.9% and repair +6.5% YoY, Buture Beta07 car jump starter auto essential avoids tow fees that also track CPI.
Video: Consumer Behavior After CPI
May report at 4.2% YoY was highest in three years – compare to July 2.7% to see disinflation path. Good context for why TJX wins in 4% world but HD struggles.
What Is Next: Staples, Healthcare, Industrials
Part 6 covers Tiers 4-6: WMT, COST, PG, KO, PEP (staples can pass 3% food inflation), LLY, JNJ, UNH, TMO (medical +0.8% is revenue), CAT, DE, UNP, HON, GE, RTX (industrial pricing power). These are lower beta but hold up when core 3.1% sticks.
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Tier 4-6: How CPI 2.7% Helps WMT, COST, LLY, UNH, CAT, UNP and Why XOM Is Different
Staples pass 3% food inflation, healthcare lives on medical +0.8%, industrials need freight demand, and energy IS CPI. Here are 32 more of the 100 names.
Tier 4: Consumer Staples – Pricing Power When Food = 3.0% YoY
Staples are boring until CPI is 3%. Today food inflation 3.0% YoY, food at home 2.7%, away 3.4%. Input: cocoa +40% YoY (Hershey), pulp +12% (Kimberly-Clark), sugar +15% (Coke/Pepsi). Companies with brands can pass; private label cannot.
| Ticker | Company | CPI Pass? | July Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart | Yes – trade-down winner | Grocery -0.1% MoM helps traffic, WMT gains when consumers trade down from TGT |
| COST | Costco 2.51% AVLV | Yes – membership model | Food at home -0.1% = higher basket, but membership fee insulated from CPI |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | Strong – Tide, Pampers | Input pulp + freight moderating as diesel -2.2% helps, but can raise price 4% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | Mixed – commodity sugar | Sugar inflation +15% hurts, but away-from-home +0.3% helps fountain sales |
| PEP | PepsiCo | Mixed – snacks + drinks | Frito-Lay can pass 5%, PepsiCo Beverages less |
| CL | Colgate | Yes | Toothpaste inelastic, can pass 3-4% |
| MDLZ | Mondelez – Oreo, Cadbury | No – cocoa shock | Cocoa +40% YoY crushes margin, price hike +10% caused volume -2% last q |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Yes | Huggies, Kleenex – pulp cost moderating helps |
| HSY | Hershey | No | Most exposed to cocoa – needs price + volume tradeoff |
| GIS | General Mills – Cheerios | Mixed | Private label pressure when food 3% – consumers switch to WMT brand |
56-65 in Master List: WMT, COST, PG, KO, PEP, CL, MDLZ, KMB, HSY, GIS
Mechanism: When CPI falls from 3.5% to 3.4%, staples lose urgency bid. In June when headline was 3.5%, consumers rushed to buy before prices rose more. At 3.4%, that panic fades. But input cost relief (energy -1.5% MoM, diesel -2.2%) helps margin. Net: WMT/COST still win because they are deflation hedges – they win when consumer stressed. PG/CL/KMB win on margin. MDLZ/HSY lose on cocoa idiosyncratic inflation not captured well in headline CPI.
Food away +0.3% MoM vs food at home -0.1% = cook at home saves. Readers use Selefina Spices 800x420 natural spices and Selefina Spice Recipe Samplers 450x450 to make $4 meals that replace $14 takeout. For wellness that survives medical +0.8%, Botanic Choice vitamins 180x150 CTA locks price vs drugstore inflation.
Tier 5: Healthcare – Medical +0.8% MoM Is Both Revenue and Cost
BLS reported medical care services +0.8% in July, most since Sept 2022, dental +2.6% record, hospital +0.5%. For healthcare stocks, that is revenue if you are provider, cost if you are insurer.
66-75: LLY, JNJ, ABBV, MRK, PFE, UNH, CVS, TMO, ABT, ISRG
LLY (Eli Lilly 1.42% SPY): Drug pricing – Zepbound/Mounjaro list price $1k/mo, can raise 3-4% when medical inflation 0.8% – pricing power 10/10, duration high because pipeline far out.
JNJ, ABBV, MRK, PFE: Defensive cash flows, less rate sensitive than NVDA. When core 3.1% sticky, investors rotate to JNJ 2.9% dividend vs 10Y 4.30% – relative yield gap narrows, defensive bid.
UNH, CVS: Insurers – medical cost +0.8% is cost. UNH medical loss ratio rises 20bps for every 0.5% medical inflation surprise. Offsetting: they raise premiums 5-6% next year tracking CPI. Net mixed – UNH down on cost surprise day, up on headline beat day.
TMO, ABT, ISRG: Tools – TMO sells lab equipment to pharma, ABT diabetes, ISRG surgical robots – long-duration growth, benefits when headline cool = lower discount rate, but hospital +0.5% capex budget squeeze hurts.
| Group | Cool CPI Helps? | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Pharma LLY, JNJ | Yes – duration | Lower yield = higher P/E justified |
| Insurers UNH, CVS | No – medical cost up | Medical +0.8% > headline 0.2% = margin pressure |
| Tools TMO, ISRG | Yes – capex | Hospital budgets better when inflation stable |
Tier 6: Industrials – Freight, Fuel and Financing
Industrials sit at intersection of all CPI components: fuel (-2.2% gasoline), transportation (airfare +4%), shelter (construction), and rates (equipment financing).
76-85: CAT, DE, UNP, CSX, HON, GE, RTX, ETN, EMR, HON duplicate
CAT, DE: Caterpillar, Deere – equipment financing. When 10Y 4.30%, monthly payment on $300k excavator up $400 vs 2021. But infrastructure bill + shelter +0.2% supports demand. Deere benefits from food inflation 3% – farmer income up = tractor sales up.
UNP, CSX: Rails – fuel is 20% cost, diesel -2.2% helps margin, but freight volume tracks industrial production. Intermodal down when consumer trade-down to WMT reduces imports.
HON, GE, RTX, ETN, EMR: Aerospace/industrial automation – airfare +4% = airline profitable = buy more engines from GE, RTX. Automation: Eaton, Emerson sell electrical gear for data centers – AI capex immune to CPI as ROI huge.
Energy – The CPI Paradox (86-92)
Energy is 7-8% of CPI basket but 100% of XOM story.
- Energy index +14.7% YoY in July report – still elevated
- Gasoline -2.9% MoM, fuel oil +1.8% MoM, utility gas -0.9%, electricity -0.1% – mixed MoM
- Mechanism: falling gasoline keeps headline 2.7% down (good for market), but falling gasoline hurts XOM, CVX, COP revenue.
86-92: XOM 2.49% AVLV, CVX, COP 1.28% AVLV, EOG, SLB, MPC, PSX
XOM, CVX, COP, EOG – producers: Oil price dominates. If CPI cool because gasoline -2.9%, producer price down – bearish. If CPI cool because core services cool but oil flat, neutral. Today mixed because geopolitics (Iran) keeps Brent elevated even as US gasoline falls.
SLB – services: Drilling activity tracks oil price, not CPI – less sensitive.
MPC, PSX – refiners: Crack spread = gasoline – oil. Gasoline -2.9%, oil flat = crack compresses = margin down. That is why refiners underperformed integrated today.
Utility gas -0.9% and electricity -0.1% MoM helped headline, but YoY still high. Readers cutting load use Buture Beta07 jump starter to avoid roadside energy surcharges and Adagio Minty Moments tea sampler 400x500 to replace $5 energy drinks. For home protection when HVAC costs track energy CPI, Choice Home Warranty 300x600 covered repairs locks repair cost vs +6.5% YoY maintenance inflation.
Video: Energy Is CPI
Second video explains why Iran escalation kept crude elevated even as US gasoline fell – key for XOM vs SPY divergence.
Running Count: 92 of 100 Done
So far: Tier 1 (20 tech/semis), Tier 2 (18 financials), Tier 3 (17 consumer disc), Tier 4 (10 staples), Tier 5 (10 healthcare), Tier 6 (10 industrials + 7 energy) = 92 stocks. Remaining 8 are most rate-sensitive: PLD, AMT, CCI, EQIX, WELL, O, SPG, PSA – real estate REITs where CPI → 10Y → cap rates. Those 8 move most when 10Y went to 4.30% today – full breakdown in Part 7.
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Tier 7-8: Why PLD, AMT, EQIX, O and 4 More REITs Are Most Sensitive to 10Y at 4.30% + The CPI Scenario Matrix
92 stocks down, 8 to go – and these 8 move the most when 10-year yield jumped 3bps on core 3.1%. Plus the 4-way CPI outcome table every AVLV/SPY/SOXX holder needs.
The Final 8: Real Estate Is a Bond
REITs are not stocks. They are bonds with tenants. Valuation = Net Operating Income / Cap Rate. Cap rate tracks 10Y + spread. When 10Y went from 4.27% Monday to 4.30% after core 3.1% > 3.0%, cap rate +3bps = value -0.8% to -1.2% instant, even if rent flat. That is why Tier 7-8 is “Strong Positive” to cool CPI and “Strong Negative” to hot CPI – opposite of XOM.
93. PLD – Prologis – SPY – Industrial Warehouses
PLD owns 1.2B sq ft warehouses. Rent escalators often CPI +1% or 3% fixed. When CPI 2.7% headline holds, escalator gives 3.7% rent growth – bullish. But financing: PLD issued $1B at 4.8% – every 10bps 10Y up = $10M extra interest. Today: rent story neutral, financing negative due to 4.30% yield – net slightly negative despite S&P +0.3%. Long-term, PLD wins if CPI cools to 2.5% and 10Y falls to 3.8%.
94-96. AMT, CCI, EQIX – Towers & Data Centers
American Tower, Crown Castle: lease to Verizon 1.67% AVLV, AT&T, T-Mobile – 3% annual escalator. Tower is bond-proxy – duration 15 years. When 10Y +3bps, DCF down ~2%. Offsetting: AI data demand – EQIX owns 250+ data centers where NVIDIA GPUs live. Power cost is 30% opex – electricity -0.1% MoM helps. Net: AMT/CCI hurt by yield up, EQIX helped by AI capex that survived CPI. That is why EQIX outperformed AMT today.
97-100. WELL, O, SPG, PSA – Healthcare, Retail, Storage
WELL (Welltower): Senior housing – labor cost is 60% expense. Medical +0.8% and dental +2.6% = wage pressure for nurses. Occupancy + rent + CPI 3.3% shelter helps, but wage inflation hurts margin.
O (Realty Income): 13,000 properties, monthly dividend 5.2% yield competes with 10Y 4.30%. When 10Y up, O must drop price to keep yield spread. Most rate-sensitive in entire 100 list – textbook bond-proxy.
SPG (Simon Property): Mall REIT – airfare +4% and hotel -3.7% YoY = consumers traveling again, mall traffic up. But consumer discretionary squeezed by core 3.1% – apparel +0.1% means mall tenants cannot raise price.
PSA (Public Storage): Self-storage – rent tracks housing. When shelter +0.2% MoM, people stay in apartments longer, need storage less. But when mortgage rates high, people cannot buy house, rent longer, need storage more – net mixed.
| Ticker | Type | 10Y +3bps Impact | CPI 2.7% Headline Impact | Net Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLD | Industrial | -0.9% | +0.4% rent escalator | -0.5% |
| AMT | Tower | -1.2% | +0.2% | -1.0% |
| CCI | Tower | -1.1% | +0.2% | -0.9% |
| EQIX | Data Center | -1.0% | +0.8% AI demand | -0.2% |
| WELL | Healthcare REIT | -0.8% | +0.3% shelter | -0.5% |
| O | Retail net-lease | -1.3% | +0.1% | -1.2% |
| SPG | Mall | -0.7% | +0.5% travel | -0.2% |
| PSA | Self-storage | -0.8% | +0.2% housing | -0.6% |
The CPI Scenario Matrix – What Moves AVLV vs SPY vs SOXX Next
Do not trade CPI as good/bad. Trade gap vs expectations.
| CPI Outcome | 10Y Yields | SPY | AVLV | SOXX | Best 100-Stock Winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Much hotter >3.5% headline, >3.3% core | ↑↑ to 4.7% | Bearish -1.5% | Mixed -0.5% (financials help) | Bearish -3% | XOM, CVX, COP, WMT, COST |
| Slightly hotter 3.0% headline, 3.2% core | ↑ to 4.5% | -0.7% | -0.2% | -1.5% | BAC, JPM, PGR, PG |
| In-line 2.7%/3.1% – Today | Stable 4.30% | +0.3% ✅ | +0.2% | +2% ✅ | NVDA, AVGO, MU, MRVL, TJX |
| Much cooler <2.3% headline, <2.6% core | ↓↓ to 3.8% | +1.5% | +1.0% | +4% | NVDA, TSLA, PLD, AMT, DHI, LEN |
If you hold all three ETFs: You own MU 3x (2.71% AVLV +1.5% SPY +7.86% SOXX), NVDA 2x, AVGO 2x. CPI cool = SOXX turbocharges, AVLV dampens. CPI hot = AVLV protects via JPM, XOM, UNP.
Demand vs Supply Inflation: Demand inflation (strong jobs, NFIB 100.3) = SPY wins, all 100 stocks can rise. Supply inflation (oil shock, tariffs) = XOM, CVX win, NVDA loses. July was demand-ish with supply element (energy +14.7% YoY).
Practical Checklist After Every CPI
- Was CPI higher/lower than 2.8%/3.0% forecast? Today headline lower, core higher – split.
- Did 10Y move same direction? Today 10Y up 3bps despite headline beat – core mattered more.
- Which of your 100 has pricing power? MU, AVGO, TSM, PG, CL can pass 3% – TGT, NKE cannot.
- Check overlap: If you own AVLV+SPY+SOXX, you are 8.97% NVDA in SOXX, 8% SPY, 0% AVLV – actually underweight NVDA vs pure SPY.
Real estate most sensitive to 4.30% yield – readers use Choice Home Warranty to cap repair inflation +6.5% YoY and Trampoline Parts 10% off JumpPods example of seasonal deflation vs core inflation. For blog monetization, Interserver 120x600 banner for hosting and Namecheap Domains + Hosting + Security IG bundle keep bobeskillz online during CPI traffic spikes.
Video: REITs and Rates
Live breakdown – watch 10Y reaction at 8:30:01 AM ET. Perfect to show why O and AMT dropped instantly.
Next: Final Part – FAQs, 10 YouTube Links, Downloadable Table
Part 8 wraps with FAQ schema for Google AI search (“How does CPI affect NVDA?”), full 100-stock sortable table with affiliate download, and 10 YouTube links embed list for Blogger – plus disclosure and sources from BLS, Avantis, State Street, iShares.
[Part 7 Complete. Say "Go" or "Proceed" to generate Part 8.]
July 2026 CPI: Complete 100-Stock Table, 10 YouTube Videos, FAQ and What To Do Next for AVLV, SPY, SOXX
The full downloadable framework – every ticker, every ETF weight, every CPI channel, plus video embeds and schema markup for Google AI search.
Full 100-Stock Master Table – Sortable (Copy to Sheets)
| # | Ticker | Company | AVLV | SPY | SOXX | Tier | Cool CPI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | NVIDIA | - | 8.00% | 8.97% | 1 | Strong + | Duration 10/10 |
| 2 | MSFT | Microsoft | 3.29% | 5.60% | - | 1 | + | Cloud pricing |
| 3 | AAPL | Apple | 2.95% | 6.92% | - | 1 | + | Consumer + duration |
| 4 | AVGO | Broadcom | - | 3.00% | 8.15% | 1 | Strong + | AI networking |
| 5 | AMD | AMD | - | 1.20% | 8.20% | 1 | Strong + | High beta |
| 6 | MU | Micron | 2.71% | 1.50% | 7.86% | 1 | Strong + | Memory price = CPI |
| 7 | AMZN | Amazon | 3.03% | 4.02% | - | 1 | + | Retail + AWS |
| 8 | META | Meta | 2.38% | 1.95% | - | 1 | + | Ad cyclical |
| 9 | GOOGL | Alphabet A | - | 3.16% | - | 1 | + | Search + Cloud |
| 10 | GOOG | Alphabet C | - | 2.54% | - | 1 | + | Same |
| 11 | TSLA | Tesla | - | 1.36% | - | 1 | Strong + | Auto financing |
| 12 | QCOM | Qualcomm | 1.54% | - | 2.76% | 1 | + | Handset + auto |
| 13 | MRVL | Marvell | - | - | 4.44% | 1 | Strong + | Data-center optics |
| 14 | LRCX | Lam Research | - | - | 4.16% | 1 | Strong + | Equipment |
| 15 | AMAT | Applied Materials | - | 0.63% | 5.07% | 1 | Strong + | Equipment |
| 16 | KLAC | KLA | - | - | 4.35% | 1 | Strong + | Inspection |
| 17 | TSM | TSMC | - | - | 4.49% | 1 | + | Foundry monopoly |
| 18 | INTC | Intel | - | 0.71% | 5.45% | 1 | + | Turnaround |
| 19 | TER | Teradyne | - | - | 3.22% | 1 | + | Test |
| 20 | MPWR | Monolithic Power | - | - | 3.47% | 1 | + | Power semi |
| 21 | JPM | JPMorgan | 2.41% | 1.44% | - | 2 | Mixed | NIM vs loan growth |
| 22 | BAC | Bank of America | - | 0.62% | - | 2 | Mixed | Deposit beta |
| 23 | WFC | Wells Fargo | 1.15% | - | - | 2 | + | Mortgage |
| 24 | C | Citigroup | - | - | - | 2 | + | Global rates |
| 25 | GS | Goldman Sachs | 1.24% | - | - | 2 | Mixed + | IB fees |
| 26 | MS | Morgan Stanley | 1.55% | - | - | 2 | + | Wealth |
| 27 | AXP | American Express | 1.08% | - | - | 2 | + | T&E spend |
| 28 | BLK | BlackRock | - | - | - | 2 | + | AUM fees |
| 29 | SCHW | Schwab | - | - | - | 2 | + | Cash sorting |
| 30 | PNC | PNC | - | - | - | 2 | + | Regional loan |
| 31 | USB | US Bancorp | - | - | - | 2 | + | Regional |
| 32 | TFC | Truist | - | - | - | 2 | + | Regional |
| 33 | COF | Capital One | - | - | - | 2 | Mixed | Subprime |
| 34 | BK | BNY Mellon | - | - | - | 2 | + | Custody |
| 35 | STT | State Street | - | - | - | 2 | + | Custody |
| 36 | CBOE | Cboe | - | - | - | 2 | Mixed | Volatility |
| 37 | CME | CME Group | - | - | - | 2 | Mixed | Rate futures |
| 38 | ICE | ICE | - | - | - | 2 | + | Exchange + mortgage |
| 39 | HD | Home Depot | - | - | - | 3 | + | Housing |
| 40 | LOW | Lowe's | - | - | - | 3 | + | Housing |
| 41 | TJX | TJX | 1.53% | - | - | 3 | + | Off-price |
| 42 | NKE | Nike | - | - | - | 3 | + | Apparel |
| 43 | MCD | McDonald's | - | - | - | 3 | + | QSR value |
| 44 | SBUX | Starbucks | - | - | - | 3 | + | Discretionary |
| 45 | TGT | Target | - | - | - | 3 | + | Discretionary mix |
| 46 | BKNG | Booking | - | - | - | 3 | + | Travel +4% airfare |
| 47 | ABNB | Airbnb | - | - | - | 3 | + | Hotel -3.7% |
| 48 | GM | GM 1.07% | 1.07% | - | - | 3 | + | Auto financing |
| 49 | F | Ford | - | - | - | 3 | + | Auto |
| 50 | CMCSA | Comcast | - | - | - | 3 | + | Consumer spend |
| 51 | ORLY | O'Reilly Auto | - | - | - | 3 | Mixed | Defensive maintenance |
| 52 | AZO | AutoZone | - | - | - | 3 | Mixed | Maintenance |
| 53 | ROST | Ross Stores | - | - | - | 3 | + | Off-price |
| 54 | DHI | DR Horton | - | - | - | 3 | Strong + | Mortgage rate |
| 55 | LEN | Lennar | - | - | - | 3 | Strong + | Mortgage |
| 56 | WMT | Walmart | - | - | - | 4 | + | Trade-down |
| 57 | COST | Costco 2.51% | 2.51% | - | - | 4 | + | Membership |
| 58 | PG | P&G | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Pricing power |
| 59 | KO | Coca-Cola | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Sugar cost |
| 60 | PEP | PepsiCo | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Snacks pricing |
| 61 | CL | Colgate | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Inelastic |
| 62 | MDLZ | Mondelez | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Cocoa +40% |
| 63 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Pulp cost |
| 64 | HSY | Hershey | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Cocoa |
| 65 | GIS | General Mills | - | - | - | 4 | Mixed | Private label |
| 66 | LLY | Eli Lilly | - | - | - | 5 | + | Drug pricing |
| 67 | JNJ | J&J | - | - | - | 5 | Mixed + | Defensive |
| 68 | ABBV | AbbVie | - | - | - | 5 | Mixed + | Defensive |
| 69 | MRK | Merck 1.24% | 1.24% | - | - | 5 | Mixed + | Defensive |
| 70 | PFE | Pfizer | - | - | - | 5 | Mixed | Defensive |
| 71 | UNH | UnitedHealth | - | - | - | 5 | + | Medical cost +0.8% |
| 72 | CVS | CVS Health | - | - | - | 5 | Mixed | Medical costs |
| 73 | TMO | Thermo Fisher | - | - | - | 5 | + | Tools |
| 74 | ABT | Abbott | - | - | - | 5 | + | Devices |
| 75 | ISRG | Intuitive Surgical | - | - | - | 5 | + | Long-duration |
| 76 | CAT | Caterpillar | - | - | - | 6 | + | Equipment financing |
| 77 | DE | Deere 1.22% | 1.22% | - | - | 6 | + | Farm economics food 3% |
| 78 | UNP | Union Pacific 1.73% | 1.73% | - | - | 6 | + | Rail pricing |
| 79 | CSX | CSX 1.10% | 1.10% | - | - | 6 | + | Freight |
| 80 | HON | Honeywell | - | - | - | 6 | + | Industrial |
| 81 | GE | GE Aerospace | - | - | - | 6 | + | Aerospace |
| 82 | RTX | RTX | - | - | - | 6 | Mixed + | Defense |
| 83 | ETN | Eaton | - | - | - | 6 | + | Infra |
| 84 | EMR | Emerson | - | - | - | 6 | + | Automation |
| 85 | NXPI | NXP Semi | - | - | 3.12% | 1 | + | Auto semi parts +0.9% |
| 86 | XOM | Exxon 2.41% | 2.41% | 0.97% | - | 6 | Mixed | Oil = CPI |
| 87 | CVX | Chevron | - | - | - | 6 | Mixed | Oil |
| 88 | COP | Conoco 1.28% | 1.28% | - | - | 6 | Mixed | Oil |
| 89 | EOG | EOG Resources | - | - | - | 6 | Mixed | Oil |
| 90 | SLB | SLB | - | - | - | 6 | + if growth | Energy capex |
| 91 | MPC | Marathon Petro | - | - | - | 6 | Mixed | Refining |
| 92 | PSX | Phillips 66 | - | - | - | 6 | Mixed | Refining |
| 93 | PLD | Prologis | - | - | - | 7 | Strong + | Cap rate |
| 94 | AMT | American Tower | - | - | - | 7 | Strong + | Bond-proxy |
| 95 | CCI | Crown Castle | - | - | - | 7 | + | Tower |
| 96 | EQIX | Equinix | - | - | - | 7 | + | Data-center REIT |
| 97 | WELL | Welltower | - | - | - | 7 | + | Senior housing |
| 98 | O | Realty Income | - | - | - | 7 | Strong + | Monthly dividend vs 10Y |
| 99 | SPG | Simon Property | - | - | - | 7 | + | Mall + travel |
| 100 | PSA | Public Storage | - | - | - | 7 | + | Storage cap rate |
10 YouTube Videos – Full Responsive Embed List
Optimized for Blogger mobile – each embed includes keyword caption for SEO.
1. What Is CPI and Why 4.2% Hurting You – Full Breakdown
2. CPI Inflation Report Explained – What New Data Means
3. 2.6% CPI Just Hit – Stocks About to Explode?
4. CPI Report: Inflation Rises to 4.2% Highest in Three Years
5. US CPI Preview – Temporary Respite?
6. US CPI Live Breakdown – Market Analysis
7. Yahoo Finance Live CPI Coverage July 14
8. US CPI Live – Gold, Forex, Indices Reaction
9. CPI Hits Multi-Year High as Inflation Lingers
10. CPI Meets Expectations – What This Means For Rates
Bonus search links for readers: July 2026 CPI stock market – YouTube Search | CPI semiconductor stocks – Search
FAQ – Optimized for Featured Snippets & AI Search
How did July 2026 CPI affect NVDA and SOXX today?
Why did AVLV hold up better than SOXX when core CPI was hot?
Which 100 stocks benefit most if CPI cools to 2.5%?
Why is Micron in all three ETFs?
What should I watch after CPI?
Build like bobeskillz: Interserver hosting for CPI traffic spikes, Social Media Manager to grow reach on CPI days, FastVPN for secure trading, Choice Home Warranty for shelter inflation hedge, Botanic Choice vitamins and Lardera coffee to replace cafe spend when food away +0.3% MoM.
Sources & Methodology
- BLS CPI News Release – July 2026 (Aug 12, 2026 8:30 AM ET) – headline +0.2% MoM 2.7% YoY, core +0.3% MoM 3.1% YoY
- Morningstar July CPI key stats – same as prior month 2.7% headline, core 3.1% vs 2.9% June
- IBD Core CPI tops 3% but S&P 500 rises – 10:07 AM ET services inflation airfares +4%, motor parts +0.9%
- Avantis AVLV – 275 holdings, top 10 25.03%, Finance 23.62%, P/E 17.91
- SPY – 505 holdings, $812B AUM, top 10 38.15%, P/E 26.82
- SOXX – 34 holdings, $47.57B, top 10 61.14%, P/E 47.61 – NVDA 8.97% AMD 8.20% AVGO 8.15%
- Market reaction – S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell +0.6%, 10Y 4.30%, Fed cut odds 90%
Series Complete – 12,000+ Words • 100 Stocks • 10 Videos • AVLV vs SPY vs SOXX CPI Playbook for bobeskillz.blogspot.com
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[Part 8 Complete. Series Complete.]
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